NFL Divisional Round Odds: Looking at Totals

The NFL divisional round playoff games are upon us and last weekend was a good reason to check the weather before placing bets in January. The weather looks to be a factor again, although not to the same extent. Snow will be falling in Buffalo, but it’s not expected during the NFL game.

Still, game-time temperatures will be in the 20s, as they will be in Baltimore. The NFC games won’t have such problems. The Lions play with a closed roof, while temperatures will be in the mid-50s in San Francisco. Now, we’ll take a look at the NFL divisional round odds with special emphasis on over/under betting this weekend.

The total on the game opened at 46 but has since dropped to 43.5 points. Part of it could be due to the weather forecast. The high in Baltimore will be 27 degrees on Saturday, and winds are forecasted to be in the 15 mph area. A lot can change over the next few days, but the weather doesn’t look good at the moment.

The cold should bother CJ Stroud, who played college football at Ohio State. The wind is a different matter, as he and Lamar Jackson could have a more challenging time than normal throwing the ball. Houston isn’t what you would call a strong running team, but Baltimore allows 4.5 yards per carry. It’s the weak link of the defense.

The Texans defend the run pretty well. But the Ravens are one of the top rushing teams in the league, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Expect Baltimore to run the ball plenty, and the under 43.5 is the best value in this game.

The NFL divisional round odds saw the total open at 50.5, and it is still there, so obviously, it’s a pretty good number by the sportsbook. The majority of bets are coming in on the over in this game, but it has yet to move. While both teams can score points, the 49ers are one of the top defensive teams in the league. The NFL scores saw San Francisco allow 17.5 points per game.

Offensively, San Francisco is probably the best-balanced team in the NFL playoffs, running 29.4 times per game and throwing 28.9 times. If the 49ers can keep Green Bay’s defense off-balance, they will be tough to stop.

The Packers are the seventh team to score 48 or more points in a playoff game, dating back to 2005. The other six NFL teams averaged just 16.7 points in their next game. That, along with a tough 49ers defense, make the play in this one the under 50.5.

The NFL betting odds on this one saw the total open 48.5 points, and the number has held steady. At first glance, the total is high. The highest total the Buccaneers have seen up to this point is 44.5 points. So there’s a pretty big jump up for this one, especially being a playoff game.

Considering the Lions won 20-6 in the NFL regular season when the total was 43, the over/under is definitely on the high side.

But it also makes sense, as this is a game where both rushing defenses are much better than the pass defenses. Tampa Bay doesn’t run the ball very well to begin with. But the Lions allowed just 3.7 yards per rush. Detroit runs the ball well, but Tampa Bay’s run defense is pretty solid, while the pass defense leaves something to be desired.

This is one of those games where there should be more points than most people expect, and it’s easier to make a case for the over than it is for the under in this one.

The NFL divisional round odds on the total opened at 46, and the number is now 45.5. It’s going to be cold, but that’s something both teams are used to, and it shouldn’t make a huge difference. The Chiefs have made a bit of a transformation from an offensive team to a defensive one.

Kansas City is allowing just 16.7 points per game. But the Chiefs are also the lone remaining team not to go over in the NFL win totals, so it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Since the Chiefs are still playing, they won’t complain.

Buffalo’s defense is pretty solid itself, allowing just 18.2 points per game. So it’s not much of a surprise that both were pretty solid under teams during the regular season. There’s no reason to expect anything different now, and the under 45.5 looks to be the best play in this one.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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