NFL Lines Week 5: Finding Value on Totals This Week

The fifth week of the 2023 NFL season is here and that means it’s time for another look at the NFL totals of the week. So far this season, overs are winning at a 46% clip, giving under bettors a slight winning mark. If not for a 13-3 showing in Week 2, overs would be in the 35% range. Games involving road favorites are off to another good start for under bettors. After going 32-66-3 in 2022, they’re 11-16 this season. It’s time to take a look at two more football games against the NFL lines Week 5 with an emphasis on the totals.

The New York Giants visit the Sunshine State for a game with Miami and the NFL spreads have Miami -11.5 with a total of 49. The Giants are 1-3 in totals this season, while the Dolphins are 3-1. Miami was just 1-7 in totals at home in 2022 and have played one home game this season, which was the 70-20 win over Denver. It’s fairly safe to say the Dolphins‘ home scoring average will come down after this game.

The Giants are averaging 11.5 points per game and that includes scoring 31 against Arizona, so they’re scoring 5.0 points per game against the other NFL teams. New York hasn’t run the ball well and has passed even worse. Being -8 in turnovers after four weeks doesn’t help the situation.

New York is allowing 30.5 points per game, although its stats aren’t as bad as the NFL score and odds would suggest. The defense has better numbers than you would expect out of a team that is 0-4 against the spread. Once it gets a little bit of help from the offense, the numbers will get even better.

The Dolphins are firing on all cylinders, rushing for 176.8 yards per game and throwing for 334.3 yards. And it’s not as though Miami has played a collection of stiffs, with Buffalo, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver and New England the opponents.

The Miami defense hasn’t been great, but they haven’t needed to be. The team is coming off its worse defensive showing of the year, but should be able to correct course a bit against the Giants.

The best bet in this game is to take the under 49 against the NFL lines Week 5.

Philadelphia travels across the country for a late afternoon game with the Rams. The NFL spread on the game is Philadelphia -4.5 and the total is 50.5. That’s the highest over/under either team has played to this season. In 2022, games with a total above 50 were 9-16 in totals. There have been five games this season with a total of 50 or higher and those games are 2-3.

The Eagles are averaging 29.5 points per game and allowing 22.5. Philadelphia’s ground game is holding up its share of the bargain, 165.3 yards per game and the passing game is averaging 226.8 yards. The Eagles are 3-1 in totals this season and have covered all four games against the spread.

The defense is playing a little better than average, especially against the run. Philadelphia is allowing just 63 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. The passing defense numbers aren’t as good, but teams are throwing 41 times against the Eagles on average.

The Rams are averaging 24.5 points per game and allowing 21.3. Los Angeles is averaging 3.7 yards per rush, but did have a solid showing last week against the Colts. But the Rams prefer to throw the ball and they might have a little bit of success against an Eagles squad that is allowing 260.8 yards per game.

Defensively, the Rams have played better against the pass than the run, but have been decent in both. The Rams are allowing 4.4 yards per rush, where the Eagles will likely have some success. Los Angeles is allowing 184.8 passing yards per game. The Eagles will stick with the run as long as it’s working. If the Rams try to stop the run too much, Philadelphia will throw some quick passes and take advantage of what the defense gives.

But still, this is a game with a road favorite and there’s really just one way to go in this one. The best bet in this game is to take the under 50.5 against the NFL lines Week 5.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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