NFL Week 11 Odds: Looking For Value in Over/Unders

Overs Coming Off Rare Winning Week

Week 10 of the NFL season saw overs go 8-6, the first winning week for overs since Week 2. Still, unders are comfortably in front this season. But that could change a little bit as the sportsbook adjusts the totals downward a little bit, as players bet more unders. We’ll take a look at the NFL Week 11 odds with an emphasis on totals in our weekly look at over/under wagers for the week.

Vikings logo Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos Broncos logo

Day/Time:
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
Line: Denver -2
Total: 43
Streaming: NBC

Don’t look now, but the two hottest teams in the NFL meet in the Sunday night game in Denver. The Vikings have the NFL’s longest winning streak at five NFL games and Denver is tied with Philadelphia for the second-longest streak in the NFL at three games. The Broncos are favored by 2 points and the total on the game is 43 points.

Vikings Have Put Things Together

The Vikings are playing well after a 1-4 start to the season. Minnesota has covered the point spread all five games in its winning streak, having been underdogs in three of them. The Vikings are still having some problems moving the ball on the ground. But the Denver defense might be just what Minnesota needs, as Denver allows 5.6 yards per carry. The Vikings are a better running team with Joshua Dobbs playing quarterback, but don’t throw quite as well.

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Minnesota’s defense has played well for the most part. The Vikings are allowing 3.7 yards per carry and under 100 rushing yards per game. Minnesota allows 6.3 yards per pass attempt and 5.2 yards per play. The defense is allowing 20.9 points per game to teams averaging 22.3 points. So the Minnesota stop unit has been effective.

The Vikings’ slow start still has them needing to win games to entrench themselves firmly in the NFL playoff picture, so you can count on a good effort from Minnesota. The Vikes have seen their Super Bowl odds drop down to +8000.

Broncos Starting to Come Around

Denver’s defense has picked it up over the last three games, allowing 16 points per game in that span. The Broncos are still allowing 27.6 points per game, although the 70 points allowed to Miami has that number inflated a bit. The Broncos don’t defend the run or the pass very well, but are playing a bit better as of late.

The Denver offense has played better than last season, which isn’t saying a whole lot. But with the Monday night football score showing a 24-22 win over Buffalo last week, the Broncos put up 24 points in back-to-back weeks against the Bills and Chiefs, two of the better AFC defenses.

The NFL Week 11 odds on the total of 43 could be a shade on the high side. Both NFL teams have under tendencies on the season and believe the under is the way to go in this one.

Giants logo New York Giants at Washington Commanders Commanders logo

Day/Time:
Location: FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Line: Washington -10
Total: 37
Streaming: FOX

The New York Giants (2-8) visit the Washington Commanders (4-6) Sunday in a game only fans of the two teams or sports bettors will be watching. The Giants were dreadful last week against Dallas, falling 49-17 and gaining just 172 yards of total offense with quarterback Tommy DeVito. The Commanders dropped a 29-26 decision to Seattle. The NFL Week 11 odds have the Commanders favored by 10 and the total is 37.5.

Giants in Major Freefall

The Giants have lost three straight games and seven of their last eight. DeVito made his first NFL start against Dallas and he looked like a rookie quarterback. He played better the previous week against Las Vegas, although there’s a big difference between the two defenses. Fortunately, for the Giants, Washington’s defense resembles Las Vegas’ more than it does Dallas.

Still, the Giants are horrible offensively, averaging just 11.8 points and 259.2 yards of offense. New York doesn’t run or pass very well, which is a big reason why the team is 2-8 in totals this season. The 17 points scored against Dallas is their highest output since Week 2 and the second-highest total the team has all season. That’s how bad the Giants have been offensively.

The defense is allowing 26.6 points to teams averaging 24 points, so it hasn’t played too poorly considering the effort of the offense. The Giants are allowing 4.7 yards per rush and 7.3 yards per pass attempt, so it doesn’t do anything very well.

Commanders Playing With Revenge

New York’s last win came against Washington four weeks ago, when the Giants pulled out a 14-7 victory. The Commanders were held to 273 yards of total offense. Sam Howell threw for 249 yards, but was sacked six times and threw an interception. The running game had 76 yards on 19 carries, but the Commanders got away from the run and threw more than they like.

Washington is averaging 21.7 points on the season. The rushing attack isn’t bad, gaining 4.4 yards per rush. But Washington only runs 20 times per game and throws 40. The Commanders are passing for 246.6 yards per contest.

Defensively, Washington is allowing 27.6 points per game against teams who average 20.9 points. The team doesn’t defend the run or the pass very well, so the Giants might have a bit more success. New York threw for 250 yards last game against Washington, but that was with Tyrod Taylor playing quarterback.

Expect Howell and the Commanders to bounce back against New York and take this one over the total.

For NFL betting news, NFL odds, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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