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Oddsmakers Banking on Low-Scoring Affair Between Falcons, Jets

Falcons at Jets Lines: Over/Under of 33.5 Lowest on Week 13 Slate

The Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets, two of the NFL’s lowest-scoring teams, will square off Sunday (1 p.m. ET) at MetLife Stadium.

Atlanta is a 2-point favorite (-110) and -145 on the moneyline, while the Jets are +2 (-110) and +125 to win outright. The projected total is just 33.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under), the lowest Over/Under on the slate for Week 13.

What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down the Falcons at Jets lines in our NFL betting preview.

Falcons logo Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets Jets logo

Day/Time:
Location: MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, N.J.
Stream: Fox

Betting Trends

The Atlanta Falcons are 3-8 against the spread, including 1-4 away from home. The total has gone Under in 12 of Atlanta’s last 17 games dating to the last NFL season. Meanwhile, the New York Jets are 4-6-1 ATS, including 3-3 at home. The total has gone Under in five of the Jets’ last six games and seven times overall. That’s important to remember when assessing the Falcons at Jets lines.

Freefall Continues for New York

Aaron Rodgers is back practicing, but the four-time NFL MVP won’t be under center for the New York Jets in Week 13. Instead, it’ll be veteran backup Tim Boyle making his second straight start.

Boyle struggled in last week’s 34-13 loss to the Miami Dolphins, throwing for 179 yards and a pair of interceptions. One of those was returned 99 yards for a touchdown. The Jets, 9.5-point underdogs, dropped to 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games.

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The Jets have now lost four straight to fall to 4-7, well outside the playoff picture in the AFC. Even worse, aside from a stunning return by Rodgers, there’s no reason to believe they’ll turn things around. The Jets have been woefully inefficient on offense, ranking 31st in the NFL standings, in yards per game (260.2), and 30th in scoring (14.8 PPG) according to NFL team stats.

Oddsmakers have reacted accordingly, dropping the Jets’ playoff odds to +1600. They’ll likely to finish well below their projected regular-season win total of 9.5.

Boyle has been largely unproductive as a pro, no matter the situation. He’s thrown for just four touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions over his first 19 NFL games, spanning five seasons with four different teams. If that continues, the Jets may have no choice but to turn back to Zach Wilson. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Falcons at Jets lines.

Trending Forward

The Atlanta Falcons got back on track in Week 13, defeating the New Orleans Saints 24-15 to snap a three-game losing streak. Now 5-6, they’re tied for first place in the NFC South with New Orleans. The Falcons, 2-point underdogs, also covered the spread for only the second time in their last 10 games.

Bijan Robinson had a big hand in Atlanta’s win, rushing 16 times for 91 yards and a touchdown. He also had 32 receiving yards and a touchdown. The rookie first-rounder now has at least one touchdown in three of the last four games.

Oddsmakers are seemingly confident they can continue this resurgence, pricing the Falcons -135 to make the NFC playoffs. They’re also +110 to win the division, a smidge behind the Saints at +150.

Offense, or lack thereof, has been a problem for Atlanta for much of this season. Despite ranking 16th in yards per game (340.8), the Falcons are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL. They’re averaging just 19.4 points. As such, the total has gone Under in seven of their 11 games this season. That’s one of the higher rates (63.6%) of any team.

Notably, Desmond Ridder is expected to start again at quarterback. He returned to throw for 168 yards and two interceptions against New Orleans Saints.

Handicapping the Game

Without Rodgers, the New York Jets depth chart is a mess. The Jets are reeling, and there’s seemingly no end in sight to their struggles. As bad as the Falcons have looked at times this season, it’s hard to trust Boyle. The Jets had just 159 yards of total offense last week, a majority of it in garbage time.

Even on the road, the Falcons are deserving favorites.

For current NFL scores, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine


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