The Washington Commanders visit the New England Patriots in Week 9.
New England opened as a 2.5-point favorite and is now up to -3.5 (+100) on the spread and -175 on the moneyline. Meanwhile, Washington is +3.5 (-120) on the spread and +155 to win outright. The total is 40.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under).
Reeling at 2-6, can the Patriots get back on track? Read on as we break down both NFL teams and assess the betting odds in our Commanders vs Patriots H2H preview.
Location: Gillette Stadium; Foxborough, Mass.
The Washington Commanders are 3-4-1 against the spread but 3-1 on the road. The total has gone Over in four of Washington’s eight NFL games. Conversely, the New England Patriots are 2-6 ATS and 2-10 over their last 12 games. The Patriots have the second lowest cover rate (25%) in the NFL behind the Carolina Panthers (16.7%). The total has gone Under in five of New England’s last seven games. That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Commanders vs Patriots H2H preview.
Midseason Firesale Spells Commanders’ Fate
The Washington Commanders dealt their top two pass rushers at Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline, choosing to rebuild for the future instead of making a push for the wild card in the NFC. The Commanders are 3-5, losers of two straight and four of five.
They’re top 10 in the NFL in sacks (25). However, pressuring the quarterback should be more difficult now after shipping out both Montez Sweat (Bears) and Chase Young (49ers). As such, oddsmakers are pessimistic, pricing them a +1000 longshot to make the NFL playoffs.
The Commanders are coming off a 38-31 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, in which they blew leads of 17-10 at halftime and 24-17 early in the fourth quarter. Despite leading by as many as 11, Washington, a 7-point underdog, still managed only a push. Washington has now covered the spread just once in the last four games.
Sam Howell threw for 397 yards and four touchdowns and was sacked only once. Despite that, he’s still been taken down an NFL-high 41 times, 13 more than the next-closest quarterback. That total’s simply unsustainable, especially for the NFL’s 20th-ranked offense (319.6 yards per game).
Washington still has a few big-play passing threats, including receiver Terry McLaurin (42 catches, 495 receiving yards). But their No. 2 receiver, Curtis Samuel, is questionable with a toe injury. Be sure to monitor his status when analyzing the odds in our Commanders vs Patriots H2H preview.
Keep Fading New England
Things keep worsening for the New England Patriots, who fell to 2-6 following a 31-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins. A 7.5-point underdog, New England failed to cover the spread for the fourth time in five weeks.
New England’s offense remains woefully inefficient, sitting second to last in the NFL rankings in scoring behind only the New York Giants (11.9 points per game). The Patriots are averaging a meager 14.8 points, leading to questions about Mac Jones‘ future at quarterback.
Jones is second in the NFL in interceptions with eight and has already been benched once this football season. On top of that, he just lost No. 1 target Kendrick Bourne (37 catches, 406 yards) to a season-ending ACL injury.
Last place in the AFC East NFL standings, the Patriots are a +2500 longshot to make the playoffs. At this point, there’s a better chance the Patriots end up with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft.
Bourne’s injury represents another tough break for the Patriots, who had already lost two of their best NFL players on defense in, linebacker Matthew Judon (torn biceps) and rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez (torn labrum) to IR. Their absences make a turnaround seem rather bleak.
Handicapping the Game
The departures of Sweat and Young have weakened one of Washington’s biggest strengths. However, the Commanders still have more than a few capable playmakers on the other side of the ball.
Washington still seems like a better bet to put up points. Jones, who’s topped 200 yards passing just once in the last five games, can’t be trusted. The Commanders have been pesky despite their 3-5 start and should be able to keep this close, if not win outright.