Raiders vs Broncos Odds: Can Payton Rejuvenate Denver?

Former Super Bowl-winning head coach Sean Payton will make his much-anticipated debut with Denver when the Broncos host the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET) to kick off the NFL season. After opening as a 4.5-point favorite, Denver is down to -3.5 (-110) and is -183 to win outright, with rival Las Vegas priced at +163. Meanwhile, the projected total has moved from 45.5 to 44 (-110).

Read on as we break down both teams in our Raiders vs Broncos odds preview.

Culture Change in Denver

The Denver Broncos flopped last season, finishing 5-12 and missing the playoffs for the seventh consecutive time. Russell Wilson’s performance declined, and Nathaniel Hackett was fired in December, just 15 games into his head coaching tenure.

Hoping to turn around their fortunes, the Broncos spent big again this offseason. They landed one of the marquee coaches on the market in Sean Payton, acquiring him from the New Orleans Saints for two draft picks, including the 29th overall selection in 2023. Payton was 152-89 in 15 seasons with New Orleans, including a victory over the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV. He did not coach last season, choosing instead to work as a studio analyst for Fox Sports.

In taking over Denver, Payton, 59, has his hands full. His biggest task will be rejuvenating one of the NFL’s worst offenses. The Broncos averaged a league-low 16.9 points and were 21st in yards per game (325.1). Wilson, a nine-time Pro Bowler, threw a career-low 16 touchdown passes and was sacked a career-high 55 times.

Can Payton fix those issues and help Denver climb back up the NFL standings? At the very least, oddsmakers expect Denver to bounce back this fall. The Broncos are projected for 8.5 wins (-105 Over, -125 Under). Still, returning to the playoffs could be difficult. The AFC West is a bear, led by the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Denver is +550 to win the division, the third-best odds behind the Los Angeles Chargers (+300).

Denver went just 7-10 against the spread last season, producing the sixth-worst cover rate (41.2%) in the NFL. Keep that in mind when assessing the Raiders vs Broncos odds.

How Low Can Las Vegas Go?

Four-time Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr left in free agency (New Orleans Saints) and was replaced by Jimmy Garoppolo, who is reuniting with head coach Josh McDaniels, his former offensive coordinator with the New England Patriots. Garoppolo, who underwent foot surgery shortly after signing his three-year, $72.75 million contract, is healthy again and should form a strong connection with receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers.

That said, expectations are low for Las Vegas. The Raiders are projected for just 6.5 wins (+110 Over, -140 Under) and are easily the biggest longshot to win the AFC West at +1400.

Garoppolo was productive with San Francisco. In 11 games last year, he completed 67.2% of his attempts for 2,437 yards, 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions. That came on the heels of an NFC Championship appearance the previous season. But he also had significantly more help with the 49ers. How effective will he be with a new supporting cast?

Fortunately for Garoppolo, the Raiders do return Josh Jacobs, who rushed for an NFL-best 1,653 yards and was named First Team All-Pro. After sitting out most of the summer over a contract dispute, Jacobs agreed to a one-year deal worth up to $12 million in August.

Notably, Las Vegas was 8-9 ATS last season.

Handicapping the Game

Is Wilson’s tank on empty? That’s the question Payton must answer as he tries to rebuild the Broncos into a consistent winner in the NFL Football standings. Hackett caught much of the blame for his regression in 2022-23, but it’s hard to ignore just how futile the Broncos were with the former Pro Bowler. Wilson, 34, was among the league’s least productive quarterbacks, producing career lows in several categories, including completion percentage (60.5).

They should be better, but until we see for ourselves, it’s hard to put much trust in the Broncos. Look for the Raiders to keep it close enough to cover the Raiders vs Broncos odds.

For NFL predictions, betting odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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