The 49ers’ losing streak is over. How will they respond? San Francisco’s first opportunity to answer that will come Sunday (1 p.m. ET) against the lowly Commanders.
Unsurprisingly, the 49ers are shaping up to be one of the biggest favorites of Week 17. San Francisco opened at -13.5 on the spread and -850 on the moneyline, with Washington coming in at +575 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is 49, with the slight lean to the Over at -112.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both NFL teams and analyze the 49ers vs Commanders matchup odds.
Location: FedEx Field; Landover, Md.
49ers vs Commanders Betting Trends
The San Francisco 49ers are 8-7 ATS, including 5-3 away from home. They’ve covered in four of their last five NFL games on the road. The 49ers are also 8-6-1 against the Over/Under, with a 4-1 mark in their previous five contests. Conversely, the Washington Commanders are 6-8-1 ATS, including 0-5-1 at home. They’ve gone Over the projected total nine times, the second highest rate in the NFL (60%).
That’s important to remember when assessing the 49ers vs Commanders matchup odds.
Red-Hot Niners Cool Off
The San Francisco 49ers fell flat in Week 16, losing 33-19 to AFC-leading Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. The Christmas Day loss snapped the 49ers’ six-game winning streak and raised some doubts about Brock Purdy’s abilities at quarterback. Purdy was intercepted four times before leaving with a stinger. He was replaced by backup Sam Darnold.
As such, Purdy’s NFL MVP odds took a massive hit. The former Mr. Irrelevant went from a -225 favorite to +850, with Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson supplanting him atop the board at -160. Running back Christian McCaffrey, who had 103 rushing yards and a touchdown in an otherwise dismal night for San Francisco, climbed to second with +325 odds.
The 49ers (11-4) are still the favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII, but the gap’s narrowed a bit. They’re now down to +225, with Baltimore coming in at +350. The 49ers can lock up the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage through the NFL playoffs by winning their final two regular-season games.
San Francisco has been favored in every game this NFL season, including five times by double digits. According to NFL results, they are 3-2 ATS and 5-0 SU in those matchups. Keep that in mind when analyzing the 49ers vs Commanders matchup odds.
From Bad to Worse for Washington
The Washington Commanders hit another low in Week 16, losing 30-28 to the Jets. The Commanders covered as a 3-point underdog, but that was little consolation following their sixth consecutive loss. At 4-11, the Commanders now hold the inside track to the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Commanders, who had failed to cover in their previous four games, rank last in the NFL in both yards (384.3) and points (30.2) allowed per game. They’ve given up at least 30 points in four of the last five games and more than 40 points twice.
Washington is also experiencing issues on the other side of the ball. Sam Howell, the NFL’s leader in interceptions (17), has been benched each of the last two weeks. After being picked off for a second time, finishing 6 of 22 for 56 yards, he was replaced Sunday by Jacoby Brissett. The Commanders rallied from a 27-7 halftime deficit to briefly take the lead behind Brissett (10-13, 100 yards, 1 TD) before falling on a last-second, 54-yard field goal by Greg Zuerlein.
This is Washington’s fifth straight game as an underdog, but only its second by double digits. The only other instance came Thanksgiving Day, when the Commanders were 13-point underdogs and lost 45-10 to Dallas. The Commanders have been particularly dismal at home, going 0-5-1 ATS and 1-5 SU.
Handicapping the Game
Head coach Ron Rivera has yet to say whether he will stick with Howell as his starter or turn to Brissett. Will it matter? The Commanders’ last-ranked defense seems like the perfect get-right opportunity for Purdy and the 49ers, who certainly could use a morale boost after they were humiliated in primetime by Baltimore.
The double-digit loss sure was eye-opening, but bettors shouldn’t overreact to one game. In cases like this, it is important to trust the bigger picture. The 49ers are still the clear Super Bowl favorites, and oddsmakers agree.