Ravens, Dolphins Square Off with AFC’s No. 1 Seed at Stake
Dolphins vs Ravens Expert Picks: Baltimore Opens at -3.5
A potential AFC Championship preview occurs Sunday in Baltimore when the Ravens host the Miami Dolphins. On the heels of its momentous victory over San Francisco, Baltimore holds the NFL’s best record at 12-3. But the 11-4 Dolphins could pull even with a win in Week 17.
Baltimore opened as 3.5-point favorites and has mostly stayed there, moving only momentarily to -3. The Ravens are also -155 on the moneyline, with the Dolphins coming in at +130. Meanwhile, the projected total has held steady at 47.5.
Who has the edge? Read on as we break down both NFL teams and give our Dolphins vs Ravens expert picks.
Dolphins vs Ravens 
Day/Time:
Location: M&T Bank Stadium; Baltimore
Streaming: CBS
Ravens, ‘Phins Turning Profits for Bettors
Is Baltimore the team to beat in the AFC? It certainly looks that way. After their 33-19 beatdown of San Francisco on Christmas, the Ravens saw their Super Bowl odds jump from +550 to +350. Although the 49ers are still the betting favorite at +225, the gap between the NFL’s top two teams continues to narrow.
The Ravens, who are also +200 to win the AFC, have covered four of their last five NFL games and are a league-best 10-5 ATS. Only Miami, Tampa Bay, and Detroit can match that record. The Ravens are also 8-5 ATS and 10-3 OU as a favorite.
Miami has been just as profitable of late, with a 4-1 mark ATS over its last five games. This is the Dolphins’ first game as an underdog since Nov. 5 against Kansas City, where they closed at +1. They’re just 1-3 ATS under that scenario, matching their OU record.
That’s important to remember when analyzing our Dolphins vs Ravens expert picks.
With Waddle Hobbled, Miami Makes Statement
Miami outlasted Dallas 22-20 in Week 16, securing an NFL playoff berth on a 29-yard field goal by Jason Sanders as time expired. The Dolphins, 1.5-point favorites, also picked up their first victory over a winning team after losses to the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs.
As such, the AFC East-leading Dolphins improved to 11-4 with two regular-season games remaining. A loss by Buffalo in either of the final two regular-season games will ensure the Dolphins their first division title since 2008.
Oddsmakers are bullish on the Dolphins, pricing them +330 to win the AFC. As of Tuesday, only the Ravens had better odds. The Dolphins’ Super Bowl LVIII odds also climbed to +750.
The Dolphins lead the NFL in total offense (411.5 yards per game) and are one of only two teams averaging more than 30 points (30.9). But the league’s No. 1 ranked passing offense could be short handed in the coming weeks.
Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is dealing with a high-ankle sprain, leaving his availability for Sunday against Baltimore in doubt. Waddle caught a 50-yard pass from Tua Tagovailoa on the opening drive of Sunday’s win but was limited to just 28 snaps. He’s the first player in franchise history with three consecutive 1,000-yard receiving NFL seasons.
Lamar Takes Over as MVP Favorite
Winners of five straight, the Ravens are the NFL’s hottest — and possibly best — team. Lamar Jackson threw for 252 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 45 yards to help topple the 49ers in primetime as 6.5-point underdogs.
In doing so, Jackson, the NFL’s leading rusher among quarterbacks (786 yards), supplanted 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy as the favorite for MVP. Jackson surged from +500 to -160. Meanwhile, current NFL MVP odds now have Purdy at +850, down from -225.
Jackson previously won MVP in 2019 and has helped keep Baltimore (12-3) atop the AFC North despite losing star tight end Mark Andrews and running backs JK Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell to season-ending injuries.
The Ravens lead the league in rushing (159.7 yards per game) and rank fifth in total offense. They’re also skilled on the other side of the ball, registering a league-high 54 sacks. Miami ranks second with 52.
The Ravens’ plus-173 point differential leads the AFC and is second to only San Francisco’s plus-177 differential across the league. Keep that in mind when assessing our Dolphins vs Ravens expert picks.
A victory Sunday over Miami would give the Ravens home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. In that case, bettors should expect to see the Ravens’ conference odds continue to climb.
No Waddle, No Problem?
Miami has been vulnerable against top teams but quieted some doubters with its victory over the Dallas Cowboys. Tyreek Hill looks healthy again, however the Dolphins are now dealing with an injury to Waddle.
His health looms large, especially against the Ravens’ ball-hawking secondary. The Ravens combined to intercept Purdy and Sam Darnold five times and lead the league with a plus-10 turnover differential.
That said, few have been able to slow down the Dolphins.
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