2023 NFL Betting Recap: Awards at the End of the Year
The AFC South and the State of Texas Feature Prominently
2023 draws a close, and the NFL season heads towards the playoff race. Most spots are still up for grabs, including the top seed in both conferences.
This is where teams jostle for ideal positions, which impacts who emerges as the Super Bowl champion and which key figures win the regular-season awards. For our 2023 NFL betting recap , we do an awards-like summary of the best bets this season.
The Best Bets of the 2023 NFL Season Thus Far
2023 NFL Team Awards
Here, we look at which teams have rewarded their backers with the biggest sums of cash. This is strictly from a betting perspective. We’re sticking to a few categories while using the point spreads. It is the 2023 NFL betting recap, after all.
Best Favorite: Dallas Cowboys
Bettors love the Cowboys. They should. Dallas is tied with not only the best cover rate (64.3%) but also the best favorite to bet on. The Cowboys are a sterling 9-2-0 against the spread (ATS) (81.8%) as favorites. They edge the Dolphins, who are 8-2-0 (80%).
Dallas has also been the best NFL bet at home: 7-0, with six of these wins coming by 20+ points. And while the Cowboys struggle on the road with a 3-4 record, they are still profitable as a favorite: 3-1-0 ATS.
Best Underdog: Houston Texans
Dallas’s AFC counterpart is the best underdog bet from a game-to-game perspective. While the Colts have been a better bet overall, we can’t argue with Houston’s track record as a dog: 6-2-0 ATS (75%) and 5-3-0 straight-up. Bettors would be up $585 if they bet $100 on the Texans every time they were lined as an underdog.
With star quarterback C.J. Stroud sidelined, the Texans could continue being underdogs on the betting lines. It may be tougher for them to win on paper, but we’ll still find it hard betting against them.
Best Team to Bet in the Totals: Indianapolis Colts
Speaking of the Colts, this team has crushed it on the betting lines-. They are tied for the best cover rate at 64.3% (9-5-0) and are also 5-0 (100%) as favorites. But we’re giving this team the award for being the best at going ‘over’ its totals: both the scoring totals every week and the preseason regular-season win totals.
So far, NFL games have gone under the totals significantly: 56.2% (98-126-0). That’s why 22 of the 32 teams’ totals have gone under at least 50% of the time. But not the Colts. If you love high-scoring games, bet the Colts: 71.4% of their games have gone over the totals (10-4-0).
And as far as their RSW totals, the Colts already went over its 6.5-wins projection in Week 13, along with Houston. Both teams have over-delivered as far as these over-under betting markets.
Best Super Bowl Steal: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens sit atop the AFC and have a good shot to get the top seed. They’re the favorites to win the AFC and have the second-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +550. Not bad for a team that opened at +1800 and went up to as high as +2500 at one point. Sharp bettors who snagged Baltimore at these prices are in for lucrative NFL results .
2023 NFL Player Awards
Moving on to individual awards, this is where it gets more surprising with this 2023 NFL betting recap. If you just started following the season now, some of the names here may leave you stunned. On top of that, compare where they lines are now versus the preseason. Early-bird players would make a killing if these contenders can finish the job.
Best Most Valuable Player Bet: Brock Purdy (SF)
Wow. That’s all we can say if San Francisco’s quarterback keeps it up and wins the MVP as -200 suggests he should. To think that he opened at +2500 and was considered nothing more than a “dark horse” just a month ago. But his efficiency is undeniable. He is 32nd in the NFL in passing attempts, but is second in touchdowns and first in passing yards. Unreal.
Best Offensive Player of the Year Bet: Christian McCaffrey (SF)
McCaffrey is the reason why many did not consider Purdy as the MVP frontrunner. He is having another stellar season as he leads the league in yards from scrimmage and total touchdowns. San Francisco is undefeated when he, Purdy, and Deebo Samuel are healthy and on the field. For his efforts, he’s the favorite to win the ‘OPOY’ at -150. Those who bet him at +1100 in the preseason are ready to eat.
Best Defensive Player of the Year Bet: Micah Parsons (DAL)
We’re torn between Parsons and Cleveland’s Myles Garrett (+180) here. Both opened at around +750, the shortest odds, to win this coveted award. It’s such a tight race here. Parsons has 12.5 sacks, while Garrett has 13.0 and plays for the better defensive team. But Parsons is a much more popular player, given his team.
Best Offensive Rookie of the Year Bet: CJ Stroud (HOU)
Stroud is the runaway favorite to win the ‘OROY’ Award and is not even available for betting at this point. He started the season third at +650 behind running back Bijan Robinson (+350) and fellow QB Bryce Young (+450). He’s outperformed them considerably, having tossed 20 TDs against five picks while pushing Houston in the playoff race.
Best Coach of the Year Bet: Shane Steichen (IND)
We’re back to the Colts as their head coach, Steichen, is neck-and-neck with Lions coach Dan Campbell to win ‘COTY’. Campbell is currently at +250, and Steichen is at +300. This will come down to which team finishes better. Those who backed Steichen at +2200 are looking at Indianapolis to finish the job.
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