With NFC’s No 1 Seed Locked Up, 49ers Prep for Playoffs vs Rams

The NFC West title is locked up. So, too, is the top seed in the NFC. For the San Francisco 49ers, Super Bowl LVIII is theirs for the taking.

But first, the 49ers have one more regular-season game to check off the box: Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET) against the Los Angeles Rams.

San Francisco opened as a 3-point favorite and had climbed to -5 on Monday morning. The 49ers were also -218 on the moneyline, with the Rams priced +180 to win outright. Meanwhile, the Over/Under dipped from 44 to 42.5.

What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and give our Rams vs 49ers free picks.

Niners Secure Home-Field Advantage

The road to Super Bowl LVIII will officially run through Santa Clara, Calif. That much is certain following Philadelphia’s loss to Arizona in Week 17. By virtue of their victory over Washington, the 49ers improved to 12-4 and locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.

With little to gain, the 49ers could opt to rest some starters for Sunday’s regular-season finale to preserve their health for the playoffs. At the very least, Kyle Shanahan could play them limited snaps. In essence, it wouldn’t be surprising to see San Francisco treat this like a preseason game.

Because of that, bettors should proceed with caution. Week 18 games tend to be volatile, especially those that don’t include playoff implications for both sides.

Nevertheless, San Francisco has been profitable for bettors. It’s gone 9-7 ATS, including 4-2 over its last six games. Los Angeles has fared even better, with a record of 9-6-1 ATS. The Rams have covered in five of their last six games. That’s important to remember when assessing our Rams vs 49ers free picks.

Rams Surging at Right Time

Los Angeles clinched an NFC playoff spot Sunday with its 26-25 win over the Giants and Seattle’s loss to Pittsburgh. The Rams have won six of their last seven games since their Week 10 bye, with the exception of an overtime loss to the AFC-leading Ravens. They’re averaging 29.3 points since Week 11, third most in the NFL over that span.

This comes after an offseason in which the Rams lost significant talent on defense and saw external expectations dip considerably. They were projected for just 6.5 wins, third in the NFC West behind San Francisco and Seattle.

An infusion of young talent has helped fuel the Rams’ turnaround. Receiver Puka Nacua has been a revelation as a fifth-round pick. With 101 catches for 1,445 yards, the former BYU star needs just four receptions to break the NFL’s single-season record for rookies by the Dolphins’ Jaylen Waddle (104). He’s also just 28 yards shy of Bill Groman’s rookie record of 1,473.

And then there’s running back Kyren Williams, who ranks second in the NFL in rushing. The 2022 fifth-rounder out of Notre Dame has carried the ball 228 times for 1,1144 yards and 12 touchdowns, trailing only San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey (1,459) in rushing yards. Williams has six 100-yard games this NFL season.

The Rams are locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFL wild card standings. It’s unclear how Sean McVay will approach the finale, but this could be a prime opportunity for the Rams to get healthy — literally and figuratively — with a road playoff game on deck. A win would likely lock up a return to Detroit for quarterback Matthew Stafford. Keep that in mind when analyzing our Rams vs 49ers free picks.

Super Bowl or Bust for San Francisco

The 49ers bounced back Sunday with a 27-10 victory over the Commanders, their seventh win in the last eight games. At 12-4, the 49ers have solidified themselves as the NFL’s team to beat. According to NFL betting odds, they’re -120 favorites in the NFC and +220 to win the Super Bowl. Next closest are the Ravens at +300.

Expectations were high for the 49ers (projected for 10.5 wins) coming into the season. Nevertheless, they’ve blown past them. The 49ers lead the NFC with a plus-194 point differential and are ranked second in the NFL in total offense. They’re averaging 404.6 yards and 29.4 points per game.

San Francisco has been favored in every game this season, by as few as 1 point and as many as 14.5. It’s covered in four of its last six games, including in Week 17 as a 14-point favorite. The 49ers are 9-7 ATS but, curiously, are just 3-4 in that market at home. They haven’t covered as a home favorite since Week 5 against Dallas, a span of five games.

The 49ers are relatively healthy after dealing with a rash of injuries earlier this season, and Shanahan will likely look to keep it that way heading into the playoffs. One of the few exceptions is McCaffrey, who exited Sunday’s game with a potential calf strain. The good news is, with the No. 1 seed locked up, the 49ers won’t need to wrestle about whether to push the two-time Pro Bowler into action at less than full strength. Because of that, seeing him play in Week 18 would be surprising.

San Francisco may also play it cautiously with some of its other top starters, especially with a first-round bye looming.

Much to Lose, Little to Gain

The 49ers surely can’t win the Super Bowl in Week 18, nor can they lose it. But there’s really no need for them to play anyone in what’s essentially a meaningless game.

As such, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the betting line drop in the next few days as the 49ers’ plans become clearer. McCaffrey is likely to sit, and odds are multiple starters will join him.

THE PICK

Outside of Baltimore, nobody’s been better than San Francisco. But we still don’t know how the 49ers will treat their regular-season finale. Even if the majority of starters wind up playing, it likely won’t be for more than a half. They have very little to gain this week.

Because of that, it’s difficult to trust San Francisco 49ers. We likely won’t see the same team that’s rolled through the season’s second half.

We also don’t know how the Rams will approach this game. But for the time being, we’re guessing they’ll be the slightly more motivated side. As such, we’re taking the Rams to cover at +5 and would also consider grabbing them on the moneyline at +180.

For today’s NFL scores, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Speads Sports Magazine.

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