Lazio vs AC Milan Betting Preview & Odds
Milan Winless in Last Two
Unpredictable Lazio Host Rossoneri
Recently, Lazio went from beating Bayern Munich midweek to losing to Bologna at the weekend. Such is the unpredictability that we’ve become accustomed to with Maurizio Sarri’s side. On Friday, Lazio host AC Milan in an intriguing Serie A matchup. Milan are winless in their last three games overall and they’re looking to complete a season sweep of Lazio. Before Friday’s match, check out our Lazio vs AC Milan betting preview as we go through the odds, trends and team news.
Lazio vs. AC Milan
Date, time:
Location: Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Italy
Lazio vs AC Milan Head-to-Head
AC Milan have won five of their last six games vs. Lazio, in all competitions. However, Lazio have won two of the last three at the Stadio Olimpico. Earlier this season, the Rossoneri picked up a 2-0 win at the San Siro as Christian Pulisic and Noah Okafor scored. The pregame Lazio vs AC Milan betting odds listed Milan as -145 favorites. Over the last ten meetings, AC Milan are 7-3 and at least one team has failed to score in six of the last seven.
Lazio Struggling to Control Games
Lazio were clearly second best in Monday’s Serie A match at Fiorentina. The Viola pushed for an opener but Lazio managed to score against the run of play as Matteo Guendouzi assisted Luis Alberto. In the second half, Michael Kayode scored his first goal for Fiorentina to equalize and Giacomo Bonaventura pounced on a rebound to put the Viola up 2-1. The match finished that way and it marked Lazio’s third loss in their last five Serie A games.
Now, the Biancocelesti are in eighth place in the Italian Serie A standings, eight points outside of the top four. To be fair, Lazio haven’t lost to a team outside of the top half for over three months but their inconsistency is still staggering.
The Biancocelesti finished in second place last season but they’ll be fortunate to get close to a Champions League place this season. Ciro Immobile is still the only Lazio player with five or more Serie A goals this season. Even so, only two of his goals have come from open play.
Bettors should also note that Lazio have kept less than 50 percent possession in seven of their last eight matches. Lazio’s opponents often control the pace of the game, leaving the Biancocelesti to defend for long stretches. Only five teams have conceded fewer goals than Lazio this season but they’ve only scored 1.23 goals per game. All of Lazio’s attacking players are available for Friday’s match, while defender Patric and midfielder Nicolo Rovella are out.
AC Milan Settle for Draw vs Atalanta
Rafael Leao scored on Sunday for the first time in Serie A since September and what a goal it was. The Portuguese winger skipped past two Atalanta defenders and sent a curling effort into the goal, just three minutes in. Milan were the better side but that didn’t translate to a victory. Atalanta won a penalty late in the first half and Teun Koopmeiners converted. The match finished 1-1 and AC Milan haven’t won any of their last three matches overall.
AC Milan’s schedule does get more manageable after the Lazio match. They’ve got Empoli, Verona, Fiorentina, Lecce and Sassuolo in their next five Serie A games. Milan are currently in third place in Serie A, 13 points behind leaders Inter Milan. Last Thursday, the Rossoneri fell 3-2 to Rennes in the Europa League but won 5-2 on aggregate to advance to the round of 16.
Milan are one of the top contenders to win the Europa League and the combination of Leao, Olivier Giroud and Christian Pulisic can be deadly. The trio all rank in the top four in Serie A in assists. Meanwhile, Giroud ranks third in the league with 12 goals. Stefano Pioli’s side have struggled with injuries this season but Milan are finally close to full strength. Fikayo Tomori has returned to training and only Tommaso Pobega is on the injury list now. Backup striker Luka Jovic is also suspended.
Lazio vs AC Milan Match Analysis & Odds
While the soccer betting odds favor the visitors AC Milan for this one, Lazio can’t be completely counted out here. The Biancocelesti, coming off a loss to Fiorentina, are 6-3-3 at home this season. The Lazio vs AC Milan betting odds currently list Maurizio Sarri’s Lazio as +220 underdogs.
Milan, on the other hand, would love to end their overall three game winless run and pick up all three points. Leao has scored in his last two matches, in all competitions, and his Milan are +130 road favorites. Bettors can also back a draw at +235 odds but none of the last ten Serie A meetings have finished level.
Lazio +0.5 currently shows -150 odds, which corresponds to a 60 percent chance to avoid defeat in this one. The Biancocelesti’s best bet is to try to suck the air out of this one and slow down the pace of the game. Containing Leao is going to be the focus of their game plan and Manuel Lazzari could have his hands full. Perhaps a low scoring game could be on the cards, as under 2.5 goals sit at -135 odds.
For Serie A betting news, odds analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
