Edwards vs Covington UFC Picks: Betting the Champ at a Golden Line
All the Trumpers in the World Can’t Help Covington Here
Edwards is at Such a Good Price Against Covington
A UFC welterweight title bout headlines the final UFC pay-per-view of 2023. And given the current odds, we can’t believe how good of a price Leon Edwards, the champion, has. Currently at -155, it is a no-brainer who the Edwards vs Covington UFC pick should be. The champion is being underwritten with this line as his opponent, Covington, is much like his trash talk: amusing but ultimately bankrupt.
Edwards vs Covington
Day/Time:
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Stream: Pay per view
Action is Back and Forth, But Mainly on Edwards
Edwards opened at -135 on the sportsbook, and there was some early movement both ways. He even went to as high as -120 with the underdog, Covington, gaining some traction. The challenger has his share of fans and could be a difficult opponent, given his style. But Edwards beat Kamaru Usman twice, the same man who beat Covington twice.
“MMA Math” rarely computes well. But with Usman and Covington having similar styles, that of high-pressure wrestle-boxers, this is something Edwards is familiar with. Thus, Edwards’ UFC betting odds being this long is a pleasant surprise. But it’s still early.
Bet Now or Time the Line for Edwards
The question is not who to bet but when to bet. The favorite is the correct Edwards vs Covington UFC pick for as long as he stays under the -170 mark. If the early action is any indication, Edwards could stay under this line as Covington has a good share of backers. Once his line lengthens, they bet him back down.
Currently, at -155, this is a solid line on Edwards. Of course, it is a must-bet if this gets longer, around the -140 range. Betting Edwards twice is even an option. The Jamaican-British fighter has been formidable in his 11-fight winning streak. He’s delivered in spades for those who bet on UFC.
Edwards allowed nine takedowns against Usman in their two fights. But he kept getting back up. He famously finished Usman with a fifth-round head kick to win the belt. Then he put on a better performance on home soil as he won a clear-cut decision – it was only a “majority” decision due to a point deduction against him. Until he proves otherwise, he’s “the man”.
Covington is Fools’ Gold
We’re not just touting Edwards for his all-around prowess. We’re also fading “Donald Trump’s favorite fighter.” Covington is like what a keyboard warrior would be if they were also a high-level MMA fighter. To his credit, he has only lost to Usman in the last seven years. And both fights were close. But Covington has also been inactive and has padded his resume against aging UFC fighters.
Covington has only fought once in each of the last three years. And he has not fought since March 2022. Edwards beat Usman twice during this span. On top of that, Covington’s previous three wins were against Jorge Masvidal, Tyron Woodley, and Robbie Lawler. None of the three are in the UFC. In fact, Max Griffin is the only fighter he’s beaten who’s still in the division. The rest either got cut, retired, or switched divisions.
The challenger is also only 1-2 as an underdog. His one victory came when he beat a fading Demian Maia. Edwards is younger than Covington and has been more active. It will be tough to back “Chaos” given all the circumstances before this UFC fight night.
And the Pick is…
We can’t overstate it: our Edwards vs Covington UFC pick is with the champion. Covington will be a difficult fight for Edwards but not something he’s not used to. The challenger lands over four takedowns per 15 minutes. That’s prolific, but it also means he does not hold his opponents down. Edwards has a 69% takedown defense and was the only fighter in the division to take Usman down.
He’ll neutralize most of Covington’s wrestling attempts and win a close but deserved decision. Bet: Leon Edwards (-155).
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