UFC Austin is About To Get Wild With Upsets
Unlike UFC pay-per-view events that tend to be a chalk bettors’ delight, the Fight Night cards tend to be favorable for underdog bettors. Take this UFC Fight Night in Austin, for example. At least half of the 13 bouts here could lead to an upset. That includes most of the fights on the main card, including the main event with the Dariush vs Tsarukyan Pick.
UFC Fight Night
Fight: Dariush vs Tsaruykan
Location: Moody Center, Austin, TX
Stream: ESPN, ESPN+
Oddsmakers are Overlooking Dariush
Beneil Dariush is just the type of guy everyone overlooks. UFC fighters avoid fighting him, and oddsmakers underestimate him. But he’s been a top-10 fighter for nearly a decade, and his only loss in the last five years came against the former champion, Charles Oliveira.
But at +225, it’s implied that he’s got less than a 31% chance of beating Arman Tsarukyan (-300). Who has Tsarukyan beaten to warrant such wide UFC betting odds? He has zero wins against fighters in the top 10, and in his lone main UFC event appearance, he lost to Mateus Gamrot. Dariush slapped Gamrot silly and won as a +225 underdog.
The perennial contender is 5-1 as an underdog in the UFC and is capable wherever the fight goes. His weakness is his durability, as he’s been knocked out in four of his five losses in the promotion. But Tsarukyan is not a knockout artist despite three TKOs in the UFC. While he should be favored, the line is too wide, and Dariush could score another big upset.
Main Card Fights Should Lean Toward Underdogs
The rest of the UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs Tsarukyan Pick should all be on the dogs. Given their betting lines, most of them have a 50% or better at winning. Bobby Green (+175) is fresh off a main event upset in his last fight. He’s 6-8 as an underdog and is better-rounded than Jalin Turner (-215), who also has a hard time cutting weight.
Deiveson Figueiredo (+110) could also stick it to Rob Font (-140) in his bantamweight debut. The former flyweight champion benefits from not having to cut weight. His power and endurance should be better, especially against Font, who has shown to have a frail chin.
Speaking of switching weight classes, Kelvin Gastelum returns to 170 pounds. He’s just 2-5 in his last seven fights, but these took place up a weight class and typically on short notice against top-five opponents. None of these apply against Sean Brady (-120), who just got outstruck and TKO’d by a wrestler. Those betting on UFC fights moved Gastelum’s line to -110 for a reason.
Our last two underdogs are not the best but should have better odds of winning than their long lines imply. Clay Guida (+240) and Dustin Stoltzfus (+235) could just outlast their opponents, Joaquim Silva (-330) and Punahele Soriano (-310), respectively.
Guida is still going strong as a 41-year-old. He’s still got the cardio to outwork Silva, who has no notable wins and has been KO’d in three of his last four fights. Stoltzfus, on the other hand, is 1-4 in the UFC. But Soriano is just 3-3 with a one-round gas tank. If he can survive the first round, he may edge the favorite.
Mommy Mayhem: Can Tate Bounce Back?
In the featured bout on the prelims is another former champion: Miesha Tate. She’s lost two straight since she returned to the UFC from a five-year retirement. But now she’s against Julia Avila (-150), who is coming from a 2.5-year layoff partly due to childbirth. And the last time Tate won, she beat a fellow mom.
Maybe it’s a coincidence. But the odds should not be so bad on Tate (+120) to prevail as an underdog UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs Tsaruykan pick.