Song vs Gutierrez UFC Pick: The Dog Gets the Last Laugh
Bet Against the Wide Lines For This UFC Main Event
Song Heavily Favored Against Gutierrez
This UFC Fight Night was supposed to be in China but got rescheduled to the UFC Apex. Still, the supposed local hero, Song Yadong is a wide favorite at -355. Chris Gutierrez is the +255 underdog. The total is set to over 3.5 rounds at -185. Seeing where the action is headed, Song should beat Gutierrez over four or more rounds. But our Song vs Gutierrez UFC pick fades this.
UFC Fight Night Information
Song vs Gutierrez
Day/Time:
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Stream: ESPN+
Song Gaining Traction
Song opened as a -360 favorite. But sharps quickly bet his line down to -330 and it is now settling at -355. The Chinese fighter has been 27 years old for over a decade! Many believe he has the makings of a future title contender. He is 9-2-1 in the UFC with five wins coming by knockout. And more notably, this is his third straight UFC main event .
As for Gutierrez, the American is 8-2-1 in the promotion. His only loss in his last 10 fights came against Pedro Munhoz, a perennial top-10 contender. This defeat is likely why the public have bet against him on the UFC betting odds . If he can’t beat a guy like Munhoz, how will he beat Song? But “MMA Math” is hardly accurate. And the lines have become too steamed.
How Good is Song Yadong?
When it comes to capping fighters, a lot is weighed on how old they are. At “only” 27 years old, Song could still be nearing his peak as a UFC fighter. Thus, we’ve seen him improve his resume over time.
He just starched Ricky Simon, a fellow top-15 fighter. Before that, his last big win came as a KO over former title challenger Marlon Moraes. And before that, he edged Marlon Vera, who is now rematching Sean O’Malley for the bantamweight belt.
Song moves forward and throws heavy punches. He lands around 4.6 significant strikes per minute mainly aimed at his opponents’ heads. While he has five KO victories, Song Yadong can be a bit simplistic in his approach. If his opponent moves around or employs a more diverse style, he can struggle.
Gutierrez Has the Tools To Win
There is a game plan that’s been proven effective against Song. Gutierrez must avoid being a stationary target, use leg kicks, and mix it up with his grappling. We saw Kyler Phillips upset Song. His diverse style caused the flat-footed Chinese fighter issues.
Vera did the same in the latter rounds though the judges inexplicably voted against him. But in a five-round fight, Vera would have surely outlasted Song. The favorite is also a frontrunner and may come out strong but fade down the stretch. Chris Gutierrez has not fought in a five-round fight in the UFC. However, he is leaner and does not have Song’s muscle mass, which could be beneficial.
The former champion does not have Song’s punching power. But he has three knockouts coming by various methods. With the right strategy, he can outwit Song. Being in Vegas, it might be a tad harder. The home crowd would have made Song more excitable and prone to error. But a cerebral Song will be tough to deal with. Still, given the odds, the underdog is the better Song vs Gutierrez UFC pick.
And the Pick is…
This Chinese-themed event on the UFC schedule of 2023 does not favor its fighters despite what the odds indicate. Our Song vs Gutierrez UFC pick is against Song Yadong as long as it stays this wide. While he is the likely winner, his implied probability of 78% is too juiced. This fight is closer to a 55/45 or 60/40 split. Hence, the dog is better to back. Bet: Chris Gutierrez (+255).
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