UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Spivak: Upset on the Cards
Gane Favored in Paris
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Spivak headlines MMA action this weekend; for Ciryl Gane, it’s a chance at redemption.
The French fighter gave up pretty quickly against Jon Jones for the heavyweight title, but he could rebound against Moldovan star Sergey Spivak.
In a list of UFC events, this is one of the more intriguing fights on the UFC fight schedule.
The sportsbook has Gane at -162, but there is some trepidation with bettors.
Gane vs Spivak
Day/Time:
Location: Accor Arena
What’s Gane Made Of?
We were disappointed with how quickly Gane tapped against Jones. He was barely in the submission for longer than a second before he tapped.
He may never have broken the submission hold from one of the best in the game, but we needed to see some fight.
“We were confident, comfortable with the situation,” Gane said. “I was really happy to be there and fight, and then boom…it was a bad moment. It was a really bad moment…then we went back to the gym and focused on my future. But before that, we had the social media…and I understand people were really disappointed.”
The 33-year-old has fought for the title twice and lost both twice, with the first coming by decision against Francis Ngannou. Going five rounds against Ngannou deserves credit, so we’re prepared to give it to him.
However, we could never make Gane one of the UFC best bets. He’s, for lack of a better term, too nice. We need to see some fight from the heavyweight, who doesn’t often look for the killer blow.
He might need it against Spivak, who is riding a hot streak, and Spivak has nothing to lose.
We thought he would be shorter than -162 with UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Spivak odds. We expected somewhere around -200, so there is some trepidation in the market.
We wouldn’t be surprised if more money comes for Spivak over the coming days, which could be telling.
Underrated Spivak Eyes Biggest Win
16-3 Spivak has steadily climbed the heavyweight ranks and now finds himself in a possible title eliminator.
The 28-year-old has quietly gone about his business, but he continues to make statements inside the Octagon, including a first-round submission win against Derrick Lewis.
He also defeated the likes of Augusto Sakai, Greg Hardy, and Aleksei Oleinik, so the big wins are on the board.
Spivak might not have beaten the biggest names in the division, but he’s trending in the right direction, as the betting markets suggest.
He’s the +132 underdog, which is under. He could have easily been a +200 chance to beat Gane, but the public has rallied for the rising star.
Gane believes Spivak is a more significant challenge than the likes of Tai Tuivasa.
“Tai Tuivasa was spectacular, and he was a dangerous guy. But Spivak, he doesn’t look like a dangerous guy…But he is more dangerous because he can strike, he can wrestle, and he can go to the ground game. It’s gonna be a big test for me,” Gane said.
Wager the Over
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Spivak odds have the total rounds line at 2½. We expect the fight to go at least three rounds, so the +132 is a value price.
There’s no doubt Gane and Spivak are gunning for an early knockout or submission win, but it could be an early stalemate like it was with Gane vs Ngannou.
It’s a five-round fight, so we’re happy to overlook the under at -162, which is far too short to generate interest.
The best value resides with Spivak to win. It won’t be easy to win in France, but winning in front of a home crowd has been challenging for UFC fighters.
Spivak also has the age advantage, and the younger fighter wins 68.8% of the time, which is a telling statistic, and proves that it’s a young man’s game.
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