Euro Qualifying Play-off Final: Wales vs Poland Odds
Odds Winner Advances to Euro 2024
Wales Looking for First Win Over Poland Since 1973
The three final spots for UEFA Euro 2024 are still up for grabs. On Tuesday, Georgia takes on Greece, Ukraine hosts Iceland in Poland, and Poland head to Cardiff to take on Wales. Both Poland and Wales picked up massive wins in the Quarter-Final to advance to the Path A final. Poland defeated Estonia 5-1 and Wales took down Finland 4-1. The winner of Wales vs. Poland will advance to a brutal Euro 2024 Group D with Netherlands, Austria, and France. Ahead of Tuesday’s crucial match, we’ll cover the Wales vs Poland odds.
Wales vs Poland
Location: Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff, Wales
Day/Time:
Wales vs Poland Head-to-Head
This is the first chance to bet on the Wales vs Poland odds in a UEFA Euro qualifier since 2005. Poland has dominated this fixture historically, with seven wins, two draws, and one loss. Poland’s only loss was in the first-ever meeting, back in 1973. Most recently, Poland pulled off two wins over Wales in the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League as Karol Swiderski scored in both fixtures. Both games were close, as Poland picked up a 1-0 win in Cardiff and a 2-1 victory back in Poland.
Wales Still Dynamic Without Bale
Wales made it look easy last Thursday, with a 4-1 win over Finland. It took Wales under three minutes to get on the scoresheet as David Brooks sent the Cardiff crowd into a frenzy. On a well-worked 38th minute set piece, Wales doubled their lead as Neco Williams sent a curler into the net. Finland got a goal back before the half, through Teemu Pukki, but didn’t have enough to come back. Brennan Johnson scored in the 47th minute to put the match beyond reach.
Then, substitute winger Daniel James made it 4-1 as he picked a Finnish defender’s pocket, rounded keeper Lukas Hradecky and slotted home. Although Gareth Bale is retired, this Wales team is more dynamic than many may think. James is a livewire when he’s on the pitch and Tottenham’s Johnson has quite a lot of pace and guile. Harry Wilson, Brooks, and Williams have also had their moments. Wilson ranks in the top 10 in the UEFA Euro qualifiers stats with 19 fouls drawn.
Bettors should also recall that Wales went unbeaten vs. Croatia in the Euro Qualifying Group Stage. Sure, they also failed to defeat Armenia in two meetings but they’re certainly able to compete in big matches. Wales are on a six game scoring streak heading into Tuesday’s match and Williams has scored in back-to-back games.
Poland Struggling on the Road
Despite completely dominating possession, and having a man advantage for the last 18 minutes of the first half, Poland went into halftime just 1-0 up over minnows Estonia last Thursday. In the second half, the floodgates opened, and Poland would go on to score four more times. Robert Lewandowski didn’t get on the scoresheet but he did manage to provide an assist for Jakub Piotrowski.
Piotrowski also provided an assist in the match and he’s had a quite productive start to his Poland career. In four appearances, the Ludogorets Razgrad midfielder has scored twice and registered an assist. Lewandowski has scored just three goals in qualifying but he’s scored his fair share of big goals for Poland. Poland also qualified for the 2022 FIFA World Cup through the Play-off route and Lewandowski scored the opening penalty in a 2-0 win over Sweden.
Poland’s form has been all over the place in the last year, much like Wales’. They lost and drew to Moldova and finished third in the Group E UEFA Euro standings for qualifiers. Poland also went 1-3 in Group Stage qualifiers away from home and their only win came at the Faroe Islands. Interestingly enough, their last win over a top 50 team on the road was at Wales in 2022 in the UEFA Nations League.
Wales vs Poland Analysis & Odds
Given neither have qualified for the final tournament yet and the fact that they’ll be in an incredibly tough group, it’s easy to see why the Euro 2024 odds price both Wales and Poland as longshots to win it all. Currently, Wales shows a +50000 price to win Euro 2024 and Poland comes in at +25000 odds. First, the Wales vs Poland odds list the hosts as +140 90 minute favorites and at a -140 price to qualify.
Wales are an unbeaten 4-3-0 in their last seven games and have outscored their opponents 14-4 during that time. Last Thursday also marked the first time Poland scored more than two goals in a match since 2021. Notably, both teams have scored in each of Wales’ last four matches. Here, over two goals sit at -120 odds.
Poland may feel disrespected by their status as underdogs, especially given they’re on a six-game winning streak vs. Wales. Currently, Poland is +220 underdogs in 90 minutes and shows even money odds to qualify for Euro 2024. Poland pk, +0.5 displays -125 odds as they look to avoid their first defeat to Wales since 1973. Wales pk, -0.5 sits at -105 and a draw is priced at +200 odds for Tuesday’s Path A Final. A long road ahead awaits whoever wins this one but it’ll undoubtedly be cause for celebration.
