D’Backs vs Brewers Preview: Series Starts With Solid Pitching Matchup

The D’Backs vs Brewers preview looks at the three-game series between the two divisional leaders that begins Monday. Arizona enters the series with a 43-29 record and a 3.5-game lead over the Giants in the NL West. The Brewers are 37-34 and clinging to a half-game lead over Cincinnati.

Monday’s game features one of the best MLB pitching matchups of the day. The Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly to the mound to face Corbin Burnes. Arizona is 9-5 when Kelly starts and 6-0 when he starts on the road. The Brewers have gone 7-7 with Burnes on the hill and 4-3 when he starts at home.

While both teams are in first place, they have gotten there through different means. Arizona is producing runs, ranking No. 3 in team batting average. The Diamondbacks have scored the fifth most runs in the major leagues. While Arizona can hit the ball, it’s the pitching that is the question mark. The Diamondbacks rank No. 19 in team ERA. The team’s 12 blown saves are among the most in MLB.

The Brewers can’t hit, but they can pitch a bit. Milwaukee is No. 12 in team ERA and has converted 17 of 24 save attempts. But at the plate, the Brewers need some help. Milwaukee is tied at No. 28 in team batting average and No. 25 in runs scored. With a -16 run differential, the Brewers expected win-loss record is 34-37. So the Brewers are winning a few games they probably shouldn’t be.

Monday’s Game

Arizona comes into this one-off a loss and the Diamondbacks have done a good job bouncing back. The Diamondbacks are 17-11 after a loss and 8-2 on the road after losing. Arizona’s 20-11 away record is one of the best in baseball and the team is 18-18 against .500 or better teams.

Kelly lost his last start but didn’t pitch all that badly. He allowed three runs over six innings in a 4-3 loss to Philadelphia. He and Burnes squared off in April and the Brewers won 7-1. Kelly allowed three runs in six innings. But Burnes threw eight scoreless innings to earn the win.

The MLB results show the Brewers won their third straight game Sunday and Milwaukee is 20-16 after a victory. Milwaukee has gone 19-21 when playing teams at .500 or better.

It’s hard to ignore the Diamondbacks’ record with Kelly on the road. Arizona allows an average of 2.67 runs per game. The Diamondbacks at plus money is the way to go in this one.

Tuesday’s Game

The D’Backs vs Brewers preview sees after a strong pitching matchup Monday, it’s time for the No. 4 and No. 5 starters to take over Tuesday. Arizona will send Ryne Nelson to the mound. The Brewers will counter with Colin Rea. Neither pitcher is going to put fear into the opposing hitters. But Rea has thrown a little better.

Nelson enters the game with a 5.30 ERA and Arizona is 6-8 when he starts. Rea will bring an ERA of 4.71 into the game. The Brewers are 6-5 when he takes the mound.

If Arizona gets the win on Monday, coming back and taking Milwaukee in this one isn’t a bad idea. It’s unlikely that there will be a sweep between two decent teams who can send out decent pitching.

Wednesday’s Game

The D’Backs vs Brewers preview notes another decent pitching matchup is in the works for this game. Arizona is slated to send Zac Gallen to the mound. Julio Teheran is scheduled to make his sixth start of the season for the Brewers.

Gallen is 8-2 with a 2.96 ERA and Arizona is 10-5 when he starts. The relief staff has let him down a couple of times this season. On the road, Arizona is just 3-4 when Gallen starts. The Diamondbacks have allowed five runs or more in six of those seven road starts. Gallen is essentially the exact opposite of Kelly. Away from home, Gallen is very hittable.

Teheran has battled injuries over the past few seasons. While it seems like he’s been around forever, Teheran is still just 32 years old. The Brewers have gone 2-3 when Teheran starts. But that’s due to a lack of run support more than anything. Milwaukee is allowing just 3.0 runs per game with Teheran on the mound. But they’re only scoring 2.0 runs per game.

If you can get Teheran at plus money, it’s probably a bet worth taking. He’s pitched well in his short stint with the Brewers, going 2-2 with a 1.78 ERA. If he’s finally healthy, he’ll be a good addition to Milwaukee’s rotation.

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