World Series Winners: Which Teams Are Standing Out?
Rays, Braves Are The Obvious Choices Right Now
Memorial Day has passed, and, even though there are still nearly four months left in the MLB regular season, enough games have been played in the 2023 MLB campaign for legitimate conclusions to be drawn about which teams are — and which sections aren’t — serious contenders to be World Series winners.
The end of May is typically seen as the first big season milestone, and, despite struggling teams still having plenty of time to turn things around, if you’re fully out of the playoff picture by now, you probably need to get back into it by September. On the flip side, if you’re well over .500 — looking at you, Tampa Bay Rays — you likely won’t have much to worry about. But, beyond the Rays, which other surging teams have the feel of a true contender?
There are a bunch of worthwhile teams to discuss, so let’s run through the top candidates as well as their MLB playoff odds:
Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves 
(+550)
Considering that the Rays are 50-22, it’s a little surprising that they aren’t the favorites to be the World Series winners. Granted, they are in an adamant AL East which could produce four playoff teams this season. At the same time, the Atlanta Braves seem to be running away with the NL East — as the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies underperform. TheNew York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies underperform, and the Miami Marlins keep improbably winning one-run games despite having a -30 run differential.
There’s no question that the Rays have been baseball’s most consistent offensive team all year and that Tampa Bay’s starting pitching has been dominant. Yet, the bullpen has been up and down, and the Rays have had a lot of position player injury luck (even with Brandon Lowe currently on the IL).
There are reasons to expect Tampa Bay to cool down and question how the Rays will fare in the playoffs. It’s hard to quibble with the Rays’ depth — six players with 11+ home runs — but it will not be easy to get through the AL postseason unscathed. If there’s a team to do it, it’s the team with MLB’s longest win streak in 2023.
Meanwhile, the Braves have been far and away the best team in the NL so far, behind a loaded offense and a pitching staff that has been good enough. Atlanta hits a ton of home runs — tied for 2nd-most in baseball with the Rays behind the Los Angeles Dodgers — and gets on base a lot, which is a good recipe for offensive success. The bullpen is a little shaky, but the rotation should get Max Fried and Kyle Wright back at some point, making them even scarier in the postseason.
The big issue with the Braves is whether they can get by the Dodgers. Atlanta’s division lead is pretty comfortable right now, and the NL isn’t as strong as it was expected to be before the season, so everything might come down to whether Atlanta can either: (1) avoid Los Angeles in the NL playoffs, or (2) somehow outhit the stacked Dodgers in a best-of-seven series. In the NL, there are no other teams that can stop the Braves.
Los Angeles Dodgers (+600)
The Dodgers are perennial candidates to be World Series winners even though they are in second place in their division and have played uninspiring baseball for the past month. Los Angeles is only 39-30 but has a +63 run differential (second in the NL behind the Braves) and has managed to more than tread water despite dealing with a huge amount of pitching injuries.
It helps to boast a top-of-lineup featuring Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy, and Will Smith. The Dodgers have the most powerful top-five in baseball with guys who easily get on base and drive in runs.
That has allowed them to withstand mediocre starting pitching and even worse work from a usually stout bullpen. With the understanding that this team still has yet to play at its best, getting them +600 is an excellent value.
Houston Astros (+700)
The Astros are in a similar position to the Dodgers, as they’re in second place in a division they’ll probably still win. Houston is in a tougher spot, though, because the Astros are 3.5 games behind the Rangers and are now without Yordan Álvarez for at least four weeks with an oblique injury and will not get starter Lance McCullers Jr. back this season. Plus, Michael Brantley has yet to play this year, and José Urquidy and Luis García are out for the foreseeable future. That doesn’t bode well for Houston.
But, if any team can withstand all of those absences, the Astros are still second in starting pitcher ERA and third in bullpen ERA. The troubling area for them is, surprisingly, on offense, where Houston is middle-of-the-pack in most categories.
No one outside of Álvarez has stepped up — Kyle Tucker has been good, not great, Alex Bregman has been fine, Jose Altuve has been ok, José Abreu is heating up but hasn’t produced much — yet Houston is doing just fine.
This group is still way too talented to sleep on.
New York Yankees (+1200)
Aaron Judge is the straw that stirs the Yankees‘ drink, and without the reigning AL MVP for a bit due to a toe sprain, the already middling New York offense looks even less intimidating. The Yankees currently sit in third place in the mighty AL East with a 39-30 record, most of which can be attributed to the dominance of Gerrit Cole and the productivity of a bullpen that has gotten huge contributions from relatively anonymous arms.
Injuries have also befallen the lineup yet none matter as much as the one to Judge, who has hit 19 home runs in just 42 games. New York relies heavily on the longball — they’re fourth in baseball in dingers but just 28th in on-base percentage — and, without Judge in the lineup, they don’t have much wallop.
The return of Harrison Bader from the IL should help but more is needed to allow the Yankees to keep pace with the Rays or Orioles (or even Blue Jays) unless someone else, like Giancarlo Stanton, steps up.
The Yankees will be a tough out in the postseason due to the top of their rotation, the back-end of the bullpen, and top-of-the-order power (when healthy). But, when you’re arguably the third- or fourth-best team in your division, it’s tough to expect a run to the World Series.
Texas Rangers (+1400)
It would be a bit excessive to call the Rangers’ 42-26 start a huge surprise considering how much money they have doled out in free agency over the past two offseasons, but for them to be this good without Jacob deGrom doing much (he’s hurt again) is impressive.
Texas has relied on its offense — first in average, on-base percentage and runs — to have baseball’s best run differential (+143) but the starting pitching, particularly of Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray, has pushed the Rangers ahead of the Astros and Angels in the AL West.
Will Texas continue to hit a ridiculous .322 with runners in scoring position? Probably not but it’s not like the lineup is hitting far above its weight; guys like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis García have established track records and Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Jung look like stars in the making.
The Rangers‘ bullpen will likely be this team’s downfall — it’s currently 25th in ERA — but that’s also an area where GM Chris Young can make significant deadline improvements. Texas may be a year away from contending for a World Series, but you at least have a decent chance when you’re in the mix in mid-June.
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