Giants vs Padres Preview: San Francisco Clinging to Playoff Spot

The San Francisco Giants begin a four-game set with the San Diego Padres on Thursday (9:40 p.m. ET) at Petco Park. In the series opener, San Diego is -1.5 (+155) on the run line and a -130 favorite to win outright, with San Francisco priced +110. The projected total is 8.5, with the over juiced to -120

The National League West rivals have split their first six meetings this season. San Diego is a +125 favorite to win the series this time around, while San Francisco is +340. The odds of a split are +160.

Who should have the edge? Read on as we break down the matchup in our Giants vs Padres preview.

Playoffs on Horizon for SF?

The San Francisco Giants continue to remain in the National League playoff hunt, clinging to the third and final wild card spot by a half-game over the Arizona Diamondbacks. San Francisco (69-64) has won three of its last four games.

Oddsmakers are a tad optimistic San Francisco will maintain its place in the MLB standings, pricing the club -120 to make the playoffs. Fortunately for the Giants, 14 of their next 17 games are against teams below .500. That includes seven games with the Colorado Rockies, who own the worst record in the NL at 49-84.

How has San Francisco gotten to this point? Logan Webb and Alex Cobb deserve much of the credit. The veteran right-handers have been the only mainstays in the team’s rotation. The ascension of reliever Camilo Doval has been important, too. Doval’s 35 saves rank second in the majors behind Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase (36). Doval should factor heavily into any MLB score predictions.

Keep Fading the Padres

Is it finally time to count out the San Diego Padres? It sure looks that way. At 62-72, San Diego finds itself 7.5 games out of the NL wild card. That’s likely too much ground to make up over the season’s final month, especially with three clubs sitting between them and the final playoff spot.

Based on metrics, San Diego’s record should be better. The Padres, for instance, own the NL’s third-best run differential at plus-54. So, what’s gone wrong? Health has undoubtedly been a factor. On Sunday, Yu Darvish was placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation, joining fellow starter Joe Musgrove (shoulder inflammation). The Padres have also been historically poor in close games. They’re now 0-11 in extra innings, one loss from trying the expansion 1969 Montreal Expos for the worst record in extra-inning games in a single season.

One bright spot for San Diego: Juan Soto continues to rake. The three-time All-Star is batting .333 with a .938 OPS over the last seven days and leads the club with 80 RBI and a .402 on-base percentage.

Odds Outlook

San Francisco is 65-68 against the run line, including 31-31 on the road. San Diego, meanwhile, is 65-69 ATS and 31-35 at home. The Giants have gone under the projected total at a 57.7% clip, the third-highest rate in MLB behind the New York Mets (58.5%) and Cleveland Guardians (58.8%). The Padres are at 56%. That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Giants vs Padres preview.

Avila, who has bounced between starting and relieving this season, owns a 2.63 ERA. Of his eight appearances (two starts), none have lasted more than 4.2 innings. In his last outing, Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers, the right-hander allowed a season-high five runs in 4.1 frames. San Francisco has not named a starter opposite him, which could impact the odds in our Giants vs Padres preview.

Wacha has been one of San Diego’s most reliable arms, going 10-2 with a 2.84 ERA. He’s gone at least five innings in seven consecutive starts. The right-hander last faced San Francisco on June 19, allowing two runs in six innings in a 7-4, 10-inning loss.

Snell is 11-9 with a 2.60 ERA and has surpassed Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (+175) and Arizona’s Zac Gallen (+350) as an even money favorite to win his second Cy Young. The left-hander ranks fourth among 2023 MLB leaders with 193 strikeouts. He faces Harrison, who has been as advertised in his first two MLB starts. The 22-year-old southpaw, the Giants’ top prospect, has struck out 16 batters over his first 9.2 innings.

Lugo is 5-6 with a 3.67 ERA. He last pitched against San Francisco on June 20, allowing one run over five innings in a 4-3 loss. The Giants will counter with Cobb, a first-time All-Star, who is 7-5 with a 3.57 ERA. In his last start, Tuesday against the Cincinnati Reds, Cobb carried a no-hitter through 8.2 innings before giving up a double to Spencer Steer.

For MLB expert picks, betting news, Giants vs Padres odds, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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