MLB Quarter Post Awards Assessment: Who’s Making an Early Impression?
Who's Worthy of The Brass?
Now that every MLB team has passed the quarter-mark of their respective regular seasons — roughly 40 games or so — there’s enough of a sample size to not only tell which teams look like contenders (the Rays are pretty remarkable) and which teams look like they’ll be in for a long six months (sorry, A’s).
But, beyond the team-level view, it’s enough time to start thinking about which players are well-positioned to contend for MLB’s most prestigious individual awards.
Granted, the MLB awards odds are subject to change a lot between now and September but it can’t hurt to get a headstart on things. Let’s run through some of the biggest races and break down the likely candidates with an eye on who might provide better value than their individual odds may indicate:
AL MVP
The MLB expert picks currently have Shohei Ohtani (-115) as the clear-cut favorite to take home his second AL MVP award in the past three years and with good reason. He has an OPS of over .900, is on pace for another 40-homer season, and is pitching as well as he did in 2021 — despite coming back to earth a little bit lately after a torrid start.
Of course, there isn’t much value in taking Ohtani right now. Plus, we’re still pretty early in a very long MLB season so a lot can change, particularly if Ohtani were to get hurt or if either his hitting or pitching significantly tailed off.
If you want to take a flyer on someone else based on the current MLB awards odds, you could turn to his teammate Mike Trout (+900) or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1000). Neither Trout nor Vladdy are tearing things up but you know they can turn it on any game and resume domination of the AL.
Interestingly, the reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge (+1200) can be still be gotten at a great price. He has hit six home runs in his last six games as both he and the Yankees heat up. Could Judge beat Ohtani out again if he hits 50+ long balls? I wouldn’t be too surprised.
NL MVP
The race for the NL MVP award is a little more open than the AL’s but Ronald Acuña Jr. (+125), as one of the MLB stats leaders in a bunch of major offensive categories, is a great pick at plus-money.
He has the best slugging percentage and OPS in baseball, the most runs and hits in baseball, the most stolen bases in the NL and is the best player on one of the league’s top teams. At this moment, it’s his award to lose.
Pete Alonso (+1200), MLB’s home run leader, is a worthwhile candidate. Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1000) should be in the mix but he has a lot of catching up to do — and his Padres are in a big funk. Names to watch are the Dodgers‘ Mookie Betts (+1400) and Freddie Freeman (+2800) who could be very deserving if Los Angeles winds up with the NL’s best record and they each put up their usual MVP-caliber individual campaigns.
AL Cy Young
Gerrit Cole (+350) is the odds-on favorite with Shane McClanahan (+400) right behind in a pretty thin field. Ohtani (+700) is probably not a great pick — it would be very hard for him to put up the kind of full season performances as other top pitchers because of his likely-depressed innings totals. Luis Castillo (+900) has struggled a bit lately and might not have the consistency needed to hang around this race.
Some high-value picks are Kevin Gausman (+1200) and Framber Valdez (+1800), both of whom have gotten out to solid starts and are the top pitchers on contending teams. Gausman was ninth in Cy Young voting in 2022 but has been striking out guys at a career-best rate (and he has the most punchouts in the AL right now).
Valdez finished in 5th place and, despite a bit of a home run issue, is doing his usual thing as a steadying force in a very-injured Astros rotation. You can’t go wrong with either (or both) of these guys.
NL Cy Young
The NL Cy Young situation is a fascinating one with two young pitchers — Zac Gallen (+175) and Spencer Strider (+225) leading the way — and the ageless Clayton Kershaw (+1000) slotting in third place based on the current MLB awards odds. The rest of the field isn’t particularly enticing so the eventual winner could be someone from out of left field.
Mitch Keller (+1600) is having a breakout year for the Pirates but it’s tough to imagine he keep up this pace for an entire season. Julio Urías (+1800) should bounce back but he has allowed the most homers in baseball and has been wildly inconsistent.
Zack Wheeler (+2200) hasn’t been great so far but his peripheral numbers indicate that his results could be turning for the better. Take a few fliers in the NL because the usual top names are either out of the league, are underperforming or have missed a lot of time due to injury.
AL Rookie of the Year
At the moment, this looks like Masataka Yoshida’s award to lose. At +110, he is easily the favorite ahead of guys like Anthony Volpe (+900), Josh Jung (+1000) and Hunter Brown (+1200). Yoshida has been one of the best Red Sox hitters and his experience in the tough NPB means he has a much longer track record than the rest of his competition. Volpe is a very good defender and has improved at the plate after a brutal season-opening slump. It’s just tough to expect someone to catch Yoshida at this rate.
NL Rookie of the Year
In the NL, it’s mainly a two-person race between James Outman (+125) and Corbin Carroll (+200). Outman wasn’t a highly touted prospect but he had a big Spring Training and was able to take advantage of the Dodgers’ weak outfield to command a roster spot.
Since then, he has been one of Los Angeles’ most important hitters even though he’s striking out in one-third of his plate appearances. Carroll had an impressive cameo in 2022 and he has kept up his production in 2023 at the plate and on the bases. But, he might not produce enough runs to unseat Outman.
Other than those two, Brett Baty (+800) and Francisco Álvarez (+5000) are options from the Mets but they haven’t shown enough in the big leagues yet to warrant serious consideration. The Marlins’ Eury Perez (+3300) has been very good in his first two career starts yet Miami will probably not try to push him too hard. Outman’s teammate Miguel Vargas (+2200) has been solid as well yet he won’t be able to escape Outman’s shadow.
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