Nationals vs Astros Betting Preview: Houston Remains Big Favorite Without Alvarez

The defending World Series champion Houston Astros will host the Washington Nationals for a three-game interleague series starting Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. On paper, it’s a big mismatch. However, the Astros are without their most feared hitter, Yordan Alvarez, because of an oblique injury.

How has Alvarez’s absence affected the betting odds? Let’s take a closer look at our Nationals vs Astros betting preview.

Alvarez Out

Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez was placed on the 10-Day MLB Injury List on Friday with right oblique discomfort. It’s a significant blow, as Alvarez was leading the majors with 55 RBI. He also ranks second in the American League in OPS (.978) behind Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge and third in homers (17).

Alvarez, who sustained the injury in Thursday’s loss to Toronto, is expected to undergo further tests in the coming days. Oblique injuries are notorious for carrying extended recovery times, so it’s possible Alvarez won’t be able to return when first eligible on June 19.

Mauricio Dubon should see an uptick in at-bats in Alvarez’s absence, with Corey Julks and Chas McCormick also receiving more playing time. The 28-year-old Dubon filled in for Alvarez in the left field twice over the weekend against Cleveland. Dubon is hitting .300 with 13 doubles. Keep that in mind when assessing our Nationals vs Astros betting preview.

In the wake of his injury, Alvarez has seen his AL MVP odds drop from +1400 to +1800. He currently trails Los Angeles’ Shohei Ohtani (-175) and Judge (+1000).

Houston’s Odds Drop

Houston’s odds took a slight hit with Alvarez sidelined. The Astros dropped from +600 to +700 to defend their World Series title, leaving them behind Tampa Bay (+550), Atlanta (+550), and the Dodgers (+600).

The Astros (37-29) still, however, are favored (-115) to win the AL West, despite being 5.0 games behind the 41-23 Rangers. Conversely, Texas is a +110 pick to stay in first. Additionally, Houston’s odds of winning the AL pennant went from +325 to +350, keeping them behind Tampa Bay.

Buy in on Washington?

How’s this for inexplicable MLB betting trends? Despite sitting in last place in the National League East, 13.5 games behind Atlanta, Washington is an impressive 36-27 against the spread. Four of the five teams ahead of them in that department own winning records and three are in first place. The Nationals’ .406 winning percentage is second-worst in the NL, behind Colorado (.403).

The Nationals have been especially impressive on the road, going 22-9 ATS. Only Baltimore, at 25-8, has fared better away from home. That’s important to remember for our Nationals vs Astros betting preview.

Despite a 26-38 overall record, Washington has played in 21 one-run games. Perhaps that explains some of its success at ATS.

Game 1

In the midst of injuries, the 24-year-old Brown has stepped up to help fortify Houston’s rotation. Brown is 5-3 with a 3.69 ERA, putting himself thick in the conversation for AL Rookie of the Year. At +750, he holds the second-best odds behind Boston outfielder Masataka Yoshida (+200) and Texas third baseman Josh Jung (+200).

Brown opposes Corbin, who is 4-6 with a 4.89 ERA. Home runs (11 allowed in 73.2 innings) remain an issue for the 33-year-old southpaw.

Houston is -1.5 on the run line (-135) and -240 to win outright, the day’s biggest moneyline favorite. The projected total is 8.5 juiced to the under at -120.

Game 2

Valdez has become Houston’s ace in the wake of Justin Verlander’s departure. The 29-year-old left-hander owns the third-lowest ERA in baseball at 2.36. He has the second-most quality starts, with 10. He’s coming off his second-shortest start of the season, a five-inning stint against Toronto on Thursday.

While still battling control issues, with 37 walks in 72 innings (1.6 K/BB), the 25-year-old Gray has a 3.00 ERA across 13 starts.

Game 3

In the other half of Houston’s dynamic one-two rotation punch, Javier is 7-1 with a 3.13 ERA. He has 74 strikeouts over 74.2 innings.

Gore, one of the prized pieces in the Juan Soto trade, is top-20 in baseball with 83 strikeouts. He has a 4.04 ERA, but like Gray, walks (29 in 69 innings) have been a problem.

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