Independent Win Total Odds: Notre Dame Eyes Return to NCAAF Playoff

The list of FBS independent programs shrunk this offseason. BYU ventured to the Big 12 while both Liberty and New Mexico State joined Conference USA. Here’s a breakdown of the projected independent win total odds for the 2023-24 season.

Army Black Knights

• Over 6: -120
• Under 6: -110

Army went 6-6 last season, but two of those victories came against FCS programs in Villanova and Colgate. Two more such schools (Delaware State, Holy Cross) are on the schedule this season, along with LSU, Coastal Carolina and, of course, Navy.

There are recruiting limitations that come with being a service academy. Yet, Jeff Monken continues to do an admirable job assembling quality talent amid challenging circumstances. He’s second on the program’s career wins list with 102, trailing only Red Blaik (121). Since 2017, the Black Knights are 50-26, the best record among service academies.

The Black Knights should remain competitive and maybe even surpass their independent win total odds so long as they can adequately replace Tyhier Tyler. Tyler was second among FBS quarterbacks last season with 12 rushing touchdowns. Outsider linebacker Andre Carter II, who ranks second all-time at Army with 20 sacks, also leaves a big void. Carter II signed with the Vikings as an undrafted NFL free agent.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

• Over 9: EV
• Under 9: -130

Drew Pyne (Arizona State) and Tyler Buchner (Alabama) both transferred, leaving former Wake Forest star Sam Hartman as the clear No. 1 quarterback. Hartman was widely regarded as the best player in the portal after throwing an ACC-record 110 touchdown passes over five seasons with the Demon Deacons.

He is second in ACC history with 12,967 passing yards, trailing only Philip Rivers. Tailback Logan Diggs, the team’s second-leading rusher last season, and tight end Michael Mayer are also gone.

With the quarterback position solidified, the Fighting Irish should be a Top-15 preseason team and contend for a College Football Playoff appearance. They are a +3000 pick to win the national championship, ahead of Pac-12 powerhouses Oregon and Washington.

While there were some embarrassing moments during Marcus Freeman’s first season at the helm — the home loss to Marshall being one — the Fighting Irish finished strong, going 9-4 with a shootout victory over South Carolina in the Gator Bowl.

As usual, Notre Dame’s schedule is meaty. Home dates with Ohio State (Sept. 23) and USC (Oct. 14) and a visit to Clemson (Nov. 4) will go a long way toward determining the Fighting Irish’s postseason fate. A New Year’s Day bowl should be the minimum target for this team.

UConn Huskies

• Over 5: +120
• Under 5: -150

Let’s be honest, Jim Mora deserved more consideration for National Coach of the Year in 2022-23. The job he did last season, his first in Storrs, was remarkable. The Huskies went 6-7, surpassing their total from the previous three seasons combined. In addition, they went to a bowl for the first time since 2015 under Bob Diaco, losing 28-14 to Marshall in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.

The Huskies probably won’t ever return to the level they reached during Randy Edsall’s first coaching stint. Remember, they were 8-5 in 2010 and earned the Big East’s automatic bid to the BCS Fiesta Bowl, where they were beaten by Oklahoma. But they’re night and day better than the past few seasons before Mora took over. There’s no debate.

Quarterback Zion Turner returns, as does running back Victor Rosa, an in-state product who shined as a freshman with 4.5 yards per carry and 11 rushing touchdowns. But the decision of top receivers Keelan Marion and Aaron Turner to transfer looks puzzling.

Defensively. linebacker Jackson Mitchell is one of college football’s more underrated players. Last season, Mitchell ranked seventh in the country in tackles with 140.

UConn will be tested right from the get-go, with NC State slated to visit for the Aug. 31 opener. The Huskies are listed as a 16.5-point underdog.

Back-to-back-to-back road games against Boston College, Tennessee and James Madison also loom large on the NCAAF schedule. If the Huskies can survive those, they’ll contend for another bowl and possibly surpass their independent win total odds.

UMass Minutemen

• Over 1.5: -190
• Under 1.5: +160

The Minutemen are bad. Really, really bad. In fact, they might be the worst program in the nation. They went 1-11 last season under Don Brown, ranking 129th in total offense. They scored 10 or fewer points seven times and recorded their only win against FCS school Stony Brook.

As discouraging as it sounds, UMass might not be much better this season. Clemson and Georgia Tech transfer Taisun Phommachanh, a former four-star recruit who rose the ranks at nearby Avon Old Farms (Conn.), offers future promise at quarterback. But again, 2023-24 looks bleak.

At least, the opener, Aug. 26 at New Mexico State, appears manageable. The Aggies are listed as 10-point favorites.

For NCAAF odds, betting news, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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