Sun Belt Regular Season Win Totals: Troy Vying for Repeat
Four Teams, Including 2022 Champ Troy, Projected for Eight Wins
The Sun Belt is shaping up to be one of the most competitive college football conferences outside of the mighty Power Five this season. Four schools — Coastal Carolina, James Madison, South Alabama, and defending champion Troy — are projected for eight wins, with a couple of others not far behind.
Who might have the edge, and why? Let’s break down the oddsmakers Sun Belt regular season win totals for all 14 teams.
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Over 6.5: -110
Under 6.5: -120
Appalachian State finished with six wins last season, its fewest since transitioning to the FBS level in 2014. If the Mountaineers can find a quarterback to replace Chase Brice, they’re a good bet to improve, especially when getting Coastal Carolina at home. Fortunately, they have some playmakers to help that mission, including running back Nate Noel, the league’s leading rusher in 2021 (1,126 yards).
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Over 4.5: -130
Under 4.5: EV
June Jones is just 5-19 over two seasons at the helm and now has several starters to replace. Former Colorado and Tennessee quarterback J.T. Shrout should get the nod under center. He has one year of college eligibility remaining and could receive another if he’s granted a medical redshirt after tearing his ACL in 2021. He threw for 1,220 yards, seven touchdowns, and eight interceptions last season.
Arkansas State opens on Sept. 2 at Oklahoma. The Red Wolves are a 33-point underdog, per NCAAF odds.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Over 8: -110
Under 8: -120
Can Tim Beck duplicate what Jamey Chadwell accomplished? The former NC State offensive coordinator faces big expectations. The Chanticleers are one of four teams projected to finish atop the Sun Belt with eight wins.
The return of Grayson McCall should made Beck’s job a lot easier. McCall weighed transferring but ultimately decided to stay put after throwing for 24 touchdowns and only two interceptions in 2022. If the Chanticleers can keep him upright, they’ll be a legitimate threat to win another nine or 10 games and return to the Sun Belt final.
Georgia Southern Eagles
Over 6: -110
Under 6: -120
Former USC coach Clay Helton did impressive work in his first year at the helm, guiding Georgia Southern to victories over Nebraska and James Madison while transitioning to a pass-first offense. The Eagles finished 6-7 and lost to Buffalo 23-21 in the Camellia Bowl.
The offense should be in good hands with Tulsa transfer Davis Brin taking over at quarterback, but the defense, which allowed over 30 points per game, needs a lot of work. That development of that unit may ultimately shape Georgia Southern’s season.
Georgia State Panthers
Over 5.5: +130
Under 5.5: -160
The Panthers went 4-8 last season, snapping a string of three consecutive bowl trips. However, five of those losses came by one score, indicating that the Panthers may not need much to get back on track. With Darren Grainger (2,443 yards, 18 TDs) back at quarterback, the Panthers should have the personnel to win some shootouts.
James Madison Dukes
Over 8: -125
Under 8: -105
Year One at the FBS level was a success. James Madison went 8-3 and won a share of the East Division title.
What will the Dukes do for an encore? Obviously, more big things are expected. The projected Sun Belt regular season win totals say as much. Whether that comes to fruition, though, will depend on a lot of factors, including the battle for a quarterback. Arizona transfer Jordan McCloud and Alonza Barnett III have been competing for most of the snaps. There are obviously big shoes to fill, as the Dukes ranked 13th in the country in scoring (37.0 PPG) in 2022. Their defense was just as good, if not better.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
Over 6.5: -160
Under 6.5: +130
Star running back Chris Smith departed, leaving a void on offense. There are also questions on the other side of the ball, which returns only two starters. Can the Ragin’ Cajuns adjust to all these changes? If not, they may have trouble finishing back on the right side of .500.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Over 3.5: +130
Under 3.5: -160
Chandler Rodgers transferred to North Texas, leaving Jiya Wright and Brian Garcia to battle for the quarterback job. That may be a bit unsettling for the Warhawks, especially after making incremental improvements in the last couple of seasons.
Four wins may be within reach. However, the non-conference slate, which features games against Army and Texas A&M, doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Marshall Thundering Herd
Over 7: -120
Under 7: -110
What’s not to like here? Former 1,400-yard rusher Rasheen Ali is back after missing most of 2022 with an injury. So, too, is quarterback Cam Fancher, who flashed potential in his brief cameo as a freshman. Only three starters return from a top-10 defense, but new coordinator Jason Semore comes highly regarded.
If the Thundering Herd can manage their schedule — which includes trips to Coastal Carolina and South Alabama, plus non-conference dates with Virginia Tech and NC State — they’ll be in good shape.
Old Dominion Monarchs
Over 3.5: -115
Under 3.5: -115
Oh, where to start? The Monarchs must overhaul an offense that ranked 116th in the country in scoring last season. Making that job more difficult, quarterback Hayden Wolff transferred to Western Michigan. Running back Blake Watson (Memphis) and wide receiver Ali Jennings III (Virginia Tech) also departed.
At 3.5, Old Dominion and ULM share the lowest projected Sun Belt regular season win total.
South Alabama Jaguars
Over 8: -110
Under 8: -120
The non-conference slate is meaty, with games against Tulane (Sept. 2) and Oklahoma State (Sept. 16) in two of the first three weeks. If the Jaguars can survive that, they’ll be in good shape to do damage come conference play. Quarterback Carter Bradley’s (3,343 yards, 28 TD) return is a significant boost for the Jaguars, who should be in the mix again for double-digit wins.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Over 5: -105
Under 5: -125
Southern Miss finished 7-6 during its first season in the Sun Belt. Notably, the Golden Eagles upset Tulane 27-24 and won their first bowl game since 2016.
The Golden Eagles’ hopes will largely hinge on Frank Gore Jr’s production. Gore Jr — the son of former NFL running back Frank Gore — rushed for 1,439 yards and nine touchdowns last season. In the LendingTree Bowl against Rice, Gore Jr ran for an FBS bowl record 329 yards, averaging 15.7 yards per carry.
Texas State Bobcats
Over 4.5: +110
Under 4.5: -140
G.J. Kinne, a former standout quarterback at Tulsa and head coach at Incarnate Word, replaces Jake Spavital, who went 13-35 over four years at Texas State. Kinne found instant success at Incarnate Word, going 12-2 and reaching the FCS semifinals in 2022, but new challenges await in the Sun Belt. For starters, the Bobcats must replace their entire offensive line and nine starters on defense.
On top of that, they open with Baylor and AAC contender UTSA.
Troy Trojans
Over 8: -165
Under 8: +135
Jon Sumrall set the bar quite high in his first year, leading Troy to 12 wins and the Sun Belt title. Following their win over UTSA in the Cure Bowl, the Jaguars were ranked 19th in the final AP Top 25 poll.
The goal, of course, is to return to that level. It won’t be easy, especially with an out-of-conference slate featuring games at Kansas State and Army, but it’s best not to count out Sumrall.
His defense hit all the right notes in 2022, ranking top 10 in the country in scoring (17.5 PPG). Plenty of talent on that side of the ball is back. However, the Trojans could use a jolt offensively.
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