49ers Open as Comfortable Favorite Over Lions in NFC Title Game

Lions vs 49ers Betting: Detroit an NFL-Best 13-6 ATS

Can the Detroit Lions cap their resurgent season with a trip to Super Bowl LVIII? They’re now just a win away from the big game, but getting there will require beating the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers. The teams will square off on Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET) in the NFC Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.

San Francisco opened as 6.5-point favorites, with numbers first appearing when the Lions jumped to a 14-point lead on Sunday against Tampa Bay. That line briefly moved to -7 with early action on the 49ers but had inched back to its opening number of -6.5 the next day, with some sportsbooks offering the 49ers at -115 to cover.

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Early indications are that the spread will stay somewhere between 6.5 and 7 points before Sunday, but bettors would be wise to act fast if they’d like to stay within 7. The 49ers are also -285 on the moneyline, with the Lions priced +230 to win outright.

As for the total, it opened between 50.5 and 52.5 across different sportsbooks with a relatively firm consensus at 51. It remained there as of Monday, with a slight edge to the Under at -112 odds.

What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both NFL teams and assess the Lions vs 49ers betting odds.

Lions logo Lions vs 49ers 49ers logo

Day/Time:
Location: Levi’s Stadium; Santa Clara, Calif.
Streaming: Watch Live Sports

Lions vs 49ers Betting Trends

The Detroit Lions are 13-6 ATS, including 7-2 away from home. The Lions’ 68.4% cover rate is the highest in the NFL. They’re also 12-7 against the Over/Under. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers are 9-9 ATS but just 3-6 at home. The 49ers are also 9-8-1 against the Over/Under.

Keep these trends in mind when analyzing the Lions vs 49ers betting odds.

Lions Leaving Behind History of Ineptitude

The Lions are headed to the NFC title game for the first time since the 1991 season following their 31-23 victory over the Buccaneers in the Divisional Round. After opening the season with +900 odds to win the NFC, the Lions are now just a step away from cashing in.

Prior to this season, Detroit’s last NFL playoff appearance was in 2016 and its most recent division title was in 1993. It ended both droughts after going 12-5 under Dan Campbell. The Lions finished third in the NFL in total offense (394.8 yards/game) and averaged 27.1 points. Despite that, the Lions are easily the biggest longshot of the remaining semifinalists at +750.

The Lions have been the most profitable team for bettors, going 13-6 ATS — a 68.4% cover rate — including 7-2 away from home. They’ve covered in five of their last six games, including against Tampa Bay as 6-point favorites.

Over their last 10 games they’re 7-3 against the Over/Under, averaging 27.5 points. That’s important to remember when assessing the Lions vs 49ers betting odds.

Jared Goff has been far more effective at home this season, where he completed 70.1% of his passes and registered a 107.9 QB rating. That compares to a 64.8 completion rate and 89.4 QB rating on the road. Furthermore, Goff averaged fewer yards per attempt when playing outdoors (7.0) compared to indoors (7.9).

As for NFL injuries, Detroit could both without both guard Jonah Jackson (knee) and tight end Brock Wright (arm) on the NFL schedule this week. As an insurance policy the Lions added three-time Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz, with plans of potentially elevating him from the practice squad.

Top-Seeded Niners Survive … Barely

The 49ers advanced to their fourth straight NFC Championship Game after edging the Packers 24-21 in the Divisional Round. A 10.5-point favorite, San Francisco overcame a 21-14 deficit in the fourth quarter to avoid the upset. Christian McCaffrey’s 6-yard touchdown run with 1:07 remaining ultimately put the NFC’s top seed ahead for good.

After opening +900 to win the Super Bowl, San Francisco has been favored in every game this season. The 49ers have been a double-digit favorite seven times, including twice by as many as 14.5 points. They’ve spent several weeks as the Super Bowl favorite and are now up to +145.

Despite being the NFL’s team to beat, the 49ers have been a liability for bettors. They’re just 9-9 ATS — a 50% cover rate — and have failed to cover in six consecutive home games. Their record against the Over/Under is 9-8-1.

The 49ers went 12-5 and led the NFC in scoring at 28.9 points per game. They also had the NFL’s third-ranked scoring defense (17.5 PPG allowed) and finished with the third-best scoring differential at plus-193, behind only Baltimore (+203) and Dallas (+194).

They went 7-2 after the Week 9 bye, with one of those losses coming in Week 18 to the Rams with most of their starters resting.

McCaffrey returned from a calf injury to rush for 98 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay. He also had seven catches for 30 yards. McCaffrey led the NFL in both rushing (1,459) and yards from scrimmage (2,023) and scored 21 touchdowns during the regular season, including 14 rushing. The 49ers are 6-1 this season when he runs for at least 100 yards.

San Francisco’s concerns now turn to receiver Deebo Samuel, who was forced from Saturday’s win with a left shoulder injury. Samuel is slated to undergo more tests on his shoulder, with the 49ers hoping that the injury isn’t as severe as the hairline fracture he suffered in Week 6 against Cleveland. He’s reportedly “50-50” to play on Sunday.

Handicapping the Game

San Francisco has won 11 of its last 12 against Detroit, but you can throw that history out the window. This is a different Lions team, far superior to any of their predecessors over the last three decades.

The 49ers have settled as 6.5-point favorites, and there’s a strong chance they’ll stay there ahead of Sunday. That said, Samuel’s injury is worth montoring.

He might be their biggest difference-maker besides McCaffrey. During the regular season, the 49ers averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel on the field compared to 5.7 when he was on the sidelines. They’ll need him to open up chances downfield against a talented, physical secondary.

For NFL scores, betting news, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads.


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