Buccaneers vs Saints Odds: No Carr, No Problem for New Orleans?

A classic NFC South rivalry resumes Sunday (1 p.m. ET) as the New Orleans Saints host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Caesars Superdome.

Despite an injury to quarterback Derek Carr, New Orleans is a 3-point favorite (-125) and -175 to win outright, according to NFL odds this week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is getting +105 odds to cover the spread. The Buccaneers are also +155 on the moneyline, while the projected total remains 40.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under).

New Orleans has won nine of its last 13 games against Tampa Bay at home. Will that continue? Read on as we break down the matchup in our Buccaneers vs Saints odds preview.

Buccaneers vs Saints Betting Trends

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-1 against the spread this season but 4-14-1 over their last 19 games. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven road games. The total has also gone Under in 13 of their previous 20 contests. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints are 0-2-1 ATS. The total has gone Under in the Saints’ last nine games, including five of the last six against Tampa Bay. That’s important to remember when assessing the Buccaneers vs Saints odds.

Carr’s Status in Doubt

After blowing a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s 18-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers, the New Orleans Saints now have injury concerns to address. Quarterback Derek Carr did not practice Wednesday with an AC joint sprain in his shoulder, leaving his status for Week 4 in doubt.

Carr, who has missed only two NFL games due to injury, was hurt after taking a sack in the third quarter of their loss. The four-time Pro Bowler was replaced by Jameis Winston, who went 10 of 16 for 101 yards but failed to produce any points. Carr recently told reporters he could play without practicing this week, but he won’t force anything if he thinks it’ll hurt the team. His status on the NFL injury report today certainly bears watching.

Even with Carr, New Orleans has gotten off to a slow start offensively. The Saints have scored just 53 points over their first three games, putting them bottom 10 in the NFL. They were a one-point underdog against Green Bay, yet they still only managed a push after leading 17-0. That’s because the Saints went scoreless in the second half, with Blake Grupe missing a 46-yard field goal that would’ve given them a late lead.

While the Saints are facing the prospect of losing Carr for multiple weeks, they’re due to get back star running back Alvin Kamara. Kamara, who rushed for 897 yards (4.0 yards per carry) last year, is slated to return from a three-game suspension. The hope is that Kamara can help rejuvenate a ground game that ranks 20th in the NFL. The Saints have rushed for only 280 yards and two touchdowns, with Taysom Hill leading the way (91 yards). Keep that in mind when analyzing the Buccaneers vs Saints odds.

TB Better than Advertised?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were overwhelmed Monday, losing 25-11 to the Philadelphia Eagles. Tampa Bay, a 5-point underdog, managed only 172 yards and turned the ball over twice. In doing so, they failed to cover the spread for the first time in three tries this season.

While it was a disheartening loss, Tampa Bay has still been better than expected in the early going. The Buccaneers, who were pegged for just 6.5 wins post-Tom Brady, outscored the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears 47-34 over the first two weeks to start 2-0. Baker Mayfield was a combined 47 of 68 for 490 yards and three touchdowns in those games before throwing his first interception of the season Monday against Philadelphia.

Tampa Bay still faces a tough road in the NFC South. The latest NFL lines have them +350 to win the division, behind both the Saints (+125) and Atlanta Falcons (+155). But clearly, Over 6.5 wins are attainable if Mayfield can limit the turnovers. Nobody in the NFL has thrown more interceptions than Mayfield since he was drafted first overall in 2018.

Like New Orleans, the Buccaneers could also use a boost on the ground. They’ve run for only 234 yards in three games, ranking 27th in the NFL. If that improves, it’ll help take some pressure off Mayfield.

Handicapping the Game

The Buccaneers appear to be in better shape than expected after losing Brady. While Philadelphia grossly outplayed them, they have a lot to build on, especially defensively. They could continue to build on that, but Mayfield’s propensity for turning over the ball is worrisome. The Saints have allowed only 50 points in three games.

Although Carr’s health clouds their outlook, their defense is still good enough to keep this close. Winston is one of the league’s more serviceable No. 2 quarterbacks. Look for the Saints to hold their own and win by a field goal or more.

For NFL betting news, odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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