NFL Totals of the Week: Looking For an Edge in Week 4

Through the first three weeks of the 2023 NFL season, overs and unders have alternated strong weekends. The unders were solid in Weeks 1 and 3, with the overs having a big showing in Week 2. Bettors may be quick to look to the overs in Week 4, but that may not be a great idea. The best value looks to be on several unders in Week 4 and those are the two games for the NFL totals of the week.

There’s bad defense and then there’s the Denver Broncos, who were absolutely dismal last week. There’s no excuse for an NFL team to allow 70 points in a game. You can be sure the Broncos have heard how much they stink all week. So a road trip might be the best thing for the team.

To realize how bad the Denver defense has been, you have to look at the NFL stats. The Broncos are No. 32 in total yardage, No. 32 in scoring defense, No. 32 in rushing yards allowed and No. 29 in passing yards allowed. And that’s being somewhat respectable in the season-opening 17-16 loss to Las Vegas to open the season.

Offensively, Denver hasn’t been all that bad. But you don’t spend the money to bring in Sean Payton to lose 35-33 or 70-20. The Broncos are expected to win some games. But they’re not going to win many playing the way they are.

The Bears haven’t been anything special offensively. Chicago is No. 29 in total offense, averaging 250 yards per game. Chicago runs the ball better than it throws, although that’s not saying a whole lot. The Bears are No. 17 in rushing yards and No. 31 in passing yards.

The Chicago defense hasn’t taken some of the attention away from how bad the offense is by being even worse. The Bears are No. 30 in total defense and No. 31 in scoring defense. Chicago is especially bad against the pass, ranking No. 31 in yards per pass attempt.

The football odds have moved up a little bit on the total, which isn’t really a surprise. You have the two worst scoring defenses going head-to-head. But you need an offense that is capable of taking advantage of a poor defense and that doesn’t describe either one of these two. The value is on the under, so that will be the play for the first of the NFL totals of the week.

The New England Patriots travel to face the Dallas Cowboys in a late afternoon game on Sunday. The Cowboys are looking to bounce back after a stunning loss at Arizona, while the Patriots are off a win against the Jets. The Cowboys are one of the NFL favorites to come out of the NFC, so you have to expect a better effort. Especially on the defensive side. Dallas is too good to allow 28 points to the Cardinals without Kyler Murray at quarterback. That’s all there is to it.

Even with that game, the Cowboys are No. 4 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Dallas has been great against the pass, ranking in the top five in all the major categories. But Dallas has had some trouble against the run. The Cowboys are allowing 131.3 yards and 5.2 yards per carry. That has to be a sight for sore eyes for the Patriots. New England is No. 14 in rushing yards and No. 22 in yards per rush. But the Cowboys are a team you can move the ball on the ground against.

Dallas is No. 11 in total offense and No. 5 in scoring offense, but will get a tough test in a well-balanced New England defense. The Patriots are No. 5 in total defense, No. 9 in rushing yards allowed and No. 5 in passing yards allowed. New England doesn’t have what you could call a defensive weakness. The Patriots have been pretty good defending whatever the offense throws at them.

Will have to take the under 43 in this one for the second of the NFL totals of the week.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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