Ravens vs Browns Odds Preview: Smashing the ‘Under’ on the Total

A Typical AFC North Meeting Between Baltimore and Cleveland

September 27, 2023 291 3 minutes readNFL Picks & Parlays

Ravens vs Browns Odds Preview: Smashing the 'Under' on the Total — Nick Cammett/Getty Images/AFP

Public Expect the Lowest-Scoring Game of Week 4
In Defense of Cleveland…
Ditto with the Ravens

Public Expect the Lowest-Scoring Game of Week 4

Regardless of what year it is, you can expect AFC North matchups to be good ol’ “smashmouth” football. Expect the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns to hit hard, run the ball, and produce a low-scoring result. The Ravens vs Browns odds slightly favor the latter as the host. But folks online have steamed the total from its opener of 43.5 points to 40.5. It is now the lowest of Week 4.

Ravens vs Browns

Day/Time: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Streaming: CBS

In Defense of Cleveland…

You will not find the Cleveland Browns among NFL leaders in things beyond the defense. Star running back Nick Chubb got hurt, and quarterback Deshaun Watson has not lived up to his massive deal. Whatever the case, Cleveland’s results have underwhelmed beyond the defense. Cleveland has the best in the league.

The Browns held the Bengals and Titans to just three points, thus leading the NFL in scoring defense (10.7 per game). If you exclude the 14 points Pittsburgh scored off of turnovers, Cleveland’s ‘D’ has allowed a total of 18 points and just one touchdown all season.

Defensive end Myles Garrett is playing like a man possessed and already has 4.5 sacks along with 10 total quarterback hits. He’s still a longshot on the NFL MVP odds. But he’s Cleveland’s best player.

As a result, two of Cleveland’s three games have gone under the total. And if we go back to last season, eight of Cleveland’s last 10 games have, along with its last five home games. Going against Baltimore, that’s five of the last seven in total. 0

“Cleveland’s defense just wins championships, I mean defense always wins championships,” Cowboys star linebacker Micah Parsons said as he listed Cleveland as one of his top three AFC teams on Bleacher Report’s B/R Gridiron podcast.

“I don’t care what no-one says, you know the Chiefs defense got the stop on Hurts and at the end of the day, they won that game. So defense always wins championships, so I’m going to go with the Cleveland Browns.”

The Browns have a Super Bowl-caliber defense. The offense lost Cleveland the Pittsburgh game. But as the Ravens vs Browns odds favor Cleveland, it’s good enough to beat the best.

Ditto with the Ravens

But Baltimore knows a thing or two about championship-winning defenses. This team had the best defense in the NFL in the final half of last NFL season, finishing third in scoring altogether (18.5 points allowed per game).

However, like Cleveland, the Ravens’ offense has let them down. Against the Colts, Baltimore fumbled the ball on offense three times, losing two. The great Justin Tucker also gout out-kicked by Matt Gay. Imagine, the Colts’ kicker hit four 50-yarders to help seal the upset.

The loss to Indiana, a +265 underdog, is partly why the Ravens vs Browns odds have Baltimore as the dog here. Add the team’s annual weakness: injuries. Several Ravens are on the NFL injuries list, including Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams on the secondary and Odell Beckham Jr. and Devin Duvernay on offense.

Baltimore has typically owned Cleveland. The Ravens are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven meetings with Cleveland and 11-4 straight-up in their last 15. But eight of these results were by one touchdown or fewer, including four of the last five matchups.

Lamar Jackson was held to just 120 passing yards with no touchdowns in his only game against Cleveland last year. And in 2021, he got picked off four times and had a 48.4 passer rating.

After signing a massive new deal, Jackson has been “mid” for Baltimore. Both he and Watson are in a similar spot and will need to outdo the other in this rivalry. It’s a toss-up though the odds are against Jackson.

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