NFL Oddsmaker Power Rankings: Upsets Shake Up Week 3
Birds Fly High While Navy Blue-Orange Teams Get Burnt
Writing these NFL Oddsmaker Power Rankings is a bit of a doozy. We’re not just checking the regular win-loss record but the records against the spread (ATS). As such, we had to factor in which weighed more. We leaned towards the latter as this is about betting, in the end. And thanks to some grizzly upsets from Week 3, the rankings got so shaken up we had to rewrite some tiers.
NFL Teams on How Rich (or Poor) They’ve Made You
Now, a lot of teams have tied in terms of both moneyline and ATS records. So how do you put the tiebreaker? The outright odds. Thus, a 1-2 underdog should rank higher than a 1-2 favorite, or a dog with a 2-1 ATS record is worth a bit more than a favorite on the latest NFL lines. But “covering as a favorite is tougher,” you say? In the end, assuming they’re at odds at -110 and some, the winnings or losses are the same.
Top Tier: The Millionaire Makers
After three weeks, there aren’t too many unbeaten teams. Only three have actually stayed perfect on the record books: Miami, Philadelphia, and San Francisco. And of these three, only Miami is also undefeated on the spread. It deserves a tier of its own, especially after dropping blowing up NFL scores and odds with a 70-point game.
But there are four teams here. One is not like the others. Arizona joins Miami as the only other team that is undefeated on the spread. And we gave it the second spot for its upset over Dallas. With one win, Arizona made its wild backers more than quadruple their wagers. Whew.
Miami Dolphins (3-0; 3-0 ATS)
Arizona Cardinals (1-2; 3-0 ATS)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0; 2-0-1 ATS)
San Francisco 49ers (3-0; 2-1 ATS)
Decent Tier: Making Money the Sweaty Way
This is where it gets tricky on the NFL Oddsmaker Power Rankings. We took every 2-1 team on the spread and lumped them here, ranking them by how much they’ve won on the moneyline as a tiebreaker.
Dallas is down to 15th after being in the top tier last week. That’s what happens when you lose as a -650 favorite. And on the flipside, the Colts pulled off an upset over Baltimore as a +265 underdog and top this tier. The Rams also stand out here as the only 1-2 team as they are technically undefeated on the spread.
Indianapolis Colts (2-1; 2-1 ATS)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1; 2-1 ATS)
Green Bay Packers (2-1; 2-1 ATS)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1; 2-1 ATS)
Buffalo Bills (2-1; 2-1 ATS)
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1; 2-1 ATS)
Detroit Lions (2-1; 2-1 ATS)
Seattle Seahawks (2-1; 2-1 ATS)
Baltimore Ravens (2-1; 2-1 ATS)
Cleveland Browns (2-1; 2-1 ATS)
Dallas Cowboys (2-1; 2-1 ATS)
Los Angeles Rams (1-2; 2-0-1 ATS)
Bleh Tier: Barely Even or Losing Money
This next tier is this NFL Oddsmaker Power Rankings’ mishmash of winning and losing teams. The upper half is teams who are 2-1 on the moneyline but losing ATS or teams who are 1-2 but winning ATS. The bottom half are teams who are losing on both fronts.
New Orleans Saints (2-1; 0-2-1 ATS)
Atlanta Falcons (2-1; 1-2 ATS)
Washington Commanders (2-1; 1-2 ATS)
Tennessee Titans (1-2; 2-1 ATS)
Houston Texans (1-2; 1-2 ATS)
New England Patriots (1-2; 1-2 ATS)
New York Jets (1-2; 1-2 ATS)
Las Vegas Raiders (1-2; 1-2 ATS)
Los Angeles Chargers (1-2; 1-2 ATS)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2; 1-2 ATS)
Cincinnati Bengals (1-2; 0-2-1 ATS)
Worst Tier: The Bankroll Burners
Every team here is not just losing money but getting wrecked on the NFL stats. Broncos and Bears fans can join together in mourning as their teams are a combined 0-6 on both moneyline and spread. In the end, we ranked the Bears last because this team lost by double digits in all three games and never came close to covering.
New York Giants (1-2; 0-3 ATS)
Minnesota Vikings (0-3; 0-2-1 ATS)
Carolina Panthers (0-3; 0-2-1 ATS)
Denver Broncos (0-3; 0-3 ATS)
Chicago Bears (0-3; 0-3 ATS)
For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
