Colts vs Jaguars Odds: Jacksonville Back Home After London Trip
Indianapolis, Jags Tied at Top of AFC South Standings
The Indianapolis Colts visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday with first place on the line. Indianapolis and Jacksonville are tied at the top of the AFC South standings with 3-2 records. Houston and Tennessee are 2-3, so the division is still wide open. The Jaguars won 31-21 in Indianapolis to open the season. But the Colts have been 3-1 since that game, and the Jags have been 2-2. The Colts vs Jaguars odds have Jacksonville -4 on the latest NFL lines, and the total on the game is at 45.5.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars 
Day/Time:
Line: Jacksonville -4
Total: 45.5
Streaming: CBS
Colts a Pleasant Surprise in Early Going
The Indianapolis Colts were expected to struggle this season. When Anthony Richardson was named the starting quarterback, some viewed Indianapolis as throwing in the towel for this season. The belief was that Indianapolis would get Richardson some experience and come back ready to compete in 2024 or 2025. But the Colts didn’t get the message, and Indianapolis has pulled off upsets against Baltimore and Tennessee to help the team move to 3-2.
The Colts are running the ball well, averaging 131.2 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry against teams that allow 3.8 yards per rush. Part of that is due to Richardson’s running ability, where he’s second on the team with 136 yards and leads the Colts with four TDs on the ground. Indianapolis is averaging 212.4 yards through the air. That may pick up slightly with Gardner Minshew at quarterback while Richardson is out with shoulder issues.
Defensively, the Colts are allowing 23 points per game to teams averaging 21.2 points. Indianapolis did allow 31 to Jacksonville in Week 1 and 29 to the Rams. The Colts are fairly tough against the run and allow 262.4 yards through the air. Indianapolis is +3 on turnovers for the season.
Lawrence Off to Slow Start
Trevor Lawrence hasn’t played bad. But he hasn’t played like he did in the second half of 2022. He was expected to build on that effort, but instead has just five touchdown passes through five games. The Jaguars are averaging 239 passing yards per game and running for 119.2 yards. Jacksonville runs 30.4 times per game and throws 36.6 times per contest.
The Jags are averaging 21 points per game against NFL teams that allow 18.8 points per game. So that’s one reason for Jacksonville’s slower than expected start to the season offensively. The running attack has been pretty average, gaining 119.2 yards and 3.8 yards per rush.
On defense, the Jaguars allow 20.4 points to teams averaging 24.2, so the defense has held up its end of the bargain. Jacksonville has been better against the run than the pass. The Jags are holding teams to 81.6 rushing yards per game, but allowing 262.4 through the air.
The Jags went 2-0 in London and now are seeking their first win of the season in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are No. 10 in Jeff Sagarin’s NFL power rankings and like the Colts, are 3-2 against the spread.
What to Expect
The Colts will rely on more short passes with Minshew in the line-up and he completes a higher percentage of passes. But the average gain is a little less on Minshew’s passes compared to when Richardson throws. Indianapolis won’t have the two-way threat Richardson brings, but will be a slightly better throwing the ball.
Jacksonville is better than the current NFL scores indicate. The Jags should have a larger point differential than +3 at this point of the season. But an inexplicable 37-17 loss to Houston at home hasn’t helped in the stats department. The Jaguars have dropped both games in Jacksonville this season, so are in dire need of a win here.
Who to Bet On?
The Colts vs Jaguars odds of Jacksonville -4 appears to be a bit on the low side. Jacksonville was favored by 3.5 at Indianapolis in the first game of the NFL season and won by 10. The point spread has come down a little bit on the game, with Jacksonville opening as 6-point favorites.
The Colts vs Jaguars odds on the total of 45.5 is an interesting number. The total in the first game of the season was also 45.5. The last two meetings between the teams have landed on the over and it’s hard to picture a different outcome in this game. Take the over 45.5 in this one.
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