Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Preview: Chiefs a Double-Digit Favorite on TNF
Denver Still Looking for First Win Against The Spread in 2023
The Kansas City Chiefs hope to maintain their strong start when they host the rival Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football. Led by reigning NFL Most Valuable Player Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are where mostly everyone expected them to be through the season’s first five weeks: atop the AFC West.
Kansas City is a comfortable 10.5-point favorite (-110) over Denver and -600 on the moneyline, while the Broncos are +10.5 (-110) on the spread and +460 to win outright. The total, meanwhile, has dropped from 51 to 47.5 (-112 Over, -108 Under).
Read on as we break down the action in our Broncos vs Chiefs betting preview.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs 
Day/Time:
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City
Streaming: Prime Video
Betting Trends
The Denver Broncos are 0-4-1 against the spread this season and 0-5-1 over their last six games. That said, they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Kansas City. The total has gone Over in nine of their last 10 games dating to last season. The Kansas City Chiefs, meanwhile, are 5-2 ATS over their last seven games, including 3-2 this season. The total has gone Under in six of their last nine games. However, it’s gone Over in four of the last six games between these NFL teams. That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Broncos vs Chiefs betting preview.
KC Humming Along
The Kansas City Chiefs edged the Minnesota Vikings 27-20 in Week 5 to improve to 4-1 overall. A 3.5-point favorite, Kansas City also covered the spread for the third time in five weeks.
In doing so, Kansas City’s kept itself on the short list of legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The defending champions are now -375 to win the AFC West and a +250 favorite to win the conference, nearly doubling the price of the next-closest team, the Buffalo Bills (+450). Kansas City is also +550 to capture Super Bowl LVIII, trailing only the San Francisco 49ers (+375).
As long as Mahomes stays healthy, Kansas City should remain among the teams to beat. Through five games, Mahomes has completed 66.8% of his passes for 1,287 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. In doing so, both he and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa have surpassed Buffalo’s Josh Allen as the co-favorite for NFL Most Valuable Player, per NFL MVP odds.
It is no surprise either, as the Chiefs are one of the most dynamic teams in the NFL with Mahomes under center. They’re averaging 381 yards and 25.6 points on the 2023 NFL schedule. They’ve scored at least 23 points each of the last three weeks, including 41 in a rout of Chicago in Week 3.
The only question is, will Travis Kelce be available to face Denver? Kelce, Mahomes’ favorite target, was expected to resume practicing Tuesday after suffering a low-ankle sprain in Sunday’s win against Minnesota. The eight-time Pro Bowler finished with a game-high 10 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. Be sure to monitor his status when analyzing the Broncos vs Chiefs odds.
Broncos Teetering on Edge
The Denver Broncos are coming off a 31-21 loss to the New York Jets in Week 5. They’re now 1-4, including 0-3 at home, and sitting in last place in the AFC West. A 2-point favorite, Denver failed to cover the spread for the fourth time this season. They’re one of only three NFL teams yet to cover, joining the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants.
Russell Wilson completed 20 of 31 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns, but his inability to produce big plays — Wilson averaged only 6.3 yards per attempt — proved problematic for Denver. While the Broncos are scoring 24.2 points per game, they’ve also allowed the most points in the NFL (181). Miami made a mockery of Denver’s defense in Week 3, scoring 70 points. It was the most by an NFL team in a game since 1966.
As such, the Broncos are already a +6500 longshot to win the AFC West and have seen their NFL playoff odds plummet to +1800. It’s obviously not what the Broncos had in mind when they paid a steep price to acquire Sean Payton. But the former Super Bowl-winning head coach will need time — and, of course, resources — to turn things around. Wilson’s declining play remains a hot-button topic around the NFL.
One bright spot for Denver has been rookie Jaleel McLaughlin. The undrafted free agent out of Youngstown State is averaging 7.3 yards per carry, albeit at a reduced workload. He could be in line for more carries if the Broncos continue to struggle.
Handicapping the Game
This is currently one of three double-digit NFL point spreads of Week 6. It’s hardly surprising, as Denver continues to find ways to regress. Wilson’s inability to get the ball downfield is concerning. But even more worrisome is their defense, which can’t seem to stop anyone. That’ll be especially problematic against Mahomes and the Chiefs, who are prone to putting up points in bunches.
Look for Kansas City to cover comfortably at home, even on a short week.
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