Falcons vs Saints Preview: New Orleans Needs Playoff Help
Falcons With Outside Shot at Playoffs
The New Orleans Saints kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a victory over Tampa Bay last week. But they’re going to need some help this week. It all starts with beating Atlanta, however. If the Saints don’t care of business it doesn’t matter what happens throughout the rest of the league. But a New Orleans win will see the Saints needing a loss by Tampa Bay or losses by both Green Bay and Seattle. But the Falcons can win the division with a victory and a Tampa Bay loss. So you know both NFL teams will be playing hard. The Falcons vs Saints preview shows New Orleans favored by 3 (-115) and the total on the game is at 41.5 points.
Falcons vs Saints 
Day/Time:
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Falcons Blow Golden Opportunities
Atlanta’s NFL playoff picture would look much better if the Falcons hadn’t lost three of their last four games. A four-point loss to Tampa Bay was followed by a 9-7 setback at the hands of the hapless Carolina Panthers.
Atlanta rebounded with a 29-10 win over Indianapolis two weeks ago. But last week the Falcons were just dismal in a 37-20 loss to Chicago. Teams fighting for the playoffs shouldn’t be losing to the likes of Carolina.
The Falcons are averaging 19 points per game against teams allowing 22.9 points. The running game is solid, averaging 130.1 yards per game and 4.2 yards per attempt.
But the passing game has been below average in all of the major categories. The Falcons gain 200.8 yards and 6.5 yards per pass attempt against teams allowing 223.2 yards and 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
Defensively, the Falcons allow 20.3 points to teams averaging 20.4 points. Atlanta has been better than average in terms of yards allowed. But the Falcons have been hurt by a -9 in turnovers, which leaves the defense in bad shape.
Atlanta is just 5-11 against the point spread this season. The Falcons are just 2-5 ATS on the road, where they score just 14 points. In over under betting, Atlanta is 6-10 this season.
New Orleans Off Huge Victory
The Saints took care of business against Tampa Bay last week. Now they’ll try to do so once again this week, where they’ve gone 4-3. But the Saints are just 2-5 against the spread at home this season. New Orleans has also been a disappointment for bettors. The Saints are 5-10-1 against the spread and 5-11 in totals.
The offense hasn’t fared too poorly, averaging 22.1 points against teams allowing 22.3 points. The run game hasn’t done a whole lot, with the team averaging 99.3 yards per game and 3.6 yards per rush. The passing game hasn’t been great. But it’s been effective, with the Saints averaging 234 yards per game and 6.5 yards per attempt.
On defense, the Saints have used a favorable NFL schedule 2023-2024 to allow just 19.4 points per game. But their opponents average just 20.1 points per game. So the Saints have been a little better than average, but certainly not great. New Orleans allows 122.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. The Saints have been better in pass defense, allowing 200.8 yards and 6.1 yards per pass attempt.
What to Expect
The Falcons vs Saints preview anticipates another big effort on the part of Atlanta to run the ball. The Falcons rushed for 228 yards when they beat New Orleans 24-15 on Nov. 26. Atlanta rushed the ball 41 times and threw 21 times in the game. Desmond Ridder threw a pair of interceptions, but the rushing attack did enough to get the win for Atlanta.
New Orleans will look to cash in when it has opportunities. The Saints were 0 for 5 inside the red zone in the first meeting, having to settle for five field goals. The Saints lost the game despite a 444-396 yardage advantage. Both teams made two turnovers.
Who to Bet On?
The Falcons vs Saints preview notes the point spread is pretty solid on this NFL game. It might seem a tad low at first glance. But New Orleans doesn’t instill a lot of confidence as a home favorite. While the Saints are 6-6 straight-up as a favorite, they’re only 3-8-1 ATS when going off as the favorite.
The total is a little bit tricky. The initial reaction would be to play the under and look for the Falcons to run the ball. But New Orleans left a lot of points on the field last game.
If the Saints could have scored one or two touchdowns inside the red zone, the outcome could have been very different. New Orleans had its best rushing day of the season, gaining 148 yards and 5.3 yards per carry. Those are both season highs.
The most value in this game is going to be the over 41.5. Both teams should have some success on the ground, but will mix in some passes to keep the defense off-balance.
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