NFC East: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
Dallas Owns Fate After Eagles Collapse
The Dallas Cowboys (11-5) head to the nation’s capital to take on the Washington Commanders (4-12) with a chance to win the NFC East for the second time in three seasons and 25th overall.
The Commanders are still trying to find themselves as an organization but a win over their arch-rival would go a long way to giving the fan base some hope that they can compete next season.
Oddsmakers made the Cowboys a 13.5-point favorite but that was bet down to its current number of 13 with a total of 45.5. Kick-off is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET / 1:25 p.m. PT and can be seen on FOX from FedEx Field. Let’s start our Cowboys vs Commanders line analysis.
Dallas Aiming For Home Field
Starting the postseason at home is always the goal at the beginning of a season but when you’re 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road, perhaps it means more to Mike McCarthy’s team.
If Dallas wins they will be the second seed in the NFC but their likely opponent is still a mystery with seven different teams a possibility and all are not bad, even with a loss. Let’s get the negative out of the way.
If the Cowboys lose and the Eagles beat the Giants, the Cowboys will play a team from the NFC South. Even a disaster scenario for Dallas isn’t all that bad, but the Cowboys are in line for something better. The reality is Dallas should beat Washington and will then play the Packers, Seahawks, Vikings, Rams, or Saints.
This is what we’re predicting for the ‘Boys. They will beat the Commanders to win the division and then it gets nuts. We’re buckling up for chaos and somehow we’ll see the New Orleans Saints heading to Dallas. That will happen if the Saints beat the Falcons, the Buccaneers beat the Panthers, and the Seahawks and Packers lose.
That is what the muddy NFL playoff standings look like, either way, Dallas will take part in the organization’s 36th playoffs.
For us, the focus is always about covering the spread, and the Cowboys have done plenty of that. Dallas is 9-7 ATS in 2023 and will complete a third straight year where they’ll be profitable.
Since 2021 the Cowboys are 33-20 ATS (62.26%). Only the Detroit Lions (34-16 ATS) are better in that span. We continue our Cowboys vs. Commanders analysis by shifting our attention to Washington.
Still Waiting On Starting QB
Sam Howell is listed as the top quarterback on the Washington depth chart, but there is still not an official confirmation whether it will be Howell or Jacoby Brissett behind center.
Head Coach Ron Rivera, who is rumored to be on his way out, has to decide whether he wants to deal with another interception-filled performance from Howell or start Brissett who has been less than 100% and 18-30 as a starter in his career.
We think Brissett gives them the best chance to win and would have started against the 49ers if he wasn’t battling a hamstring injury. Well, if you brought him in to play you can bet he’ll be the signal caller on Sunday if healthy.
This will be the third straight season where Washington has failed to turn a profit for bettors at 6-9-1 ATS. Since 2021, Washington is just 21-26-3 ATS.
On most weekends, most NFLscoresheets show results that suggest a culture problem, with just 43 wins in their last 113 games (38.1%). That probably isn’t shocking news. We conclude our Cowboys vs Commanders line analysis with our official selection.
Dallas To Start Postseason At Home
The Dallas Cowboys have not been great against the better teams in the league this NFL season, but outside of the Arizona Cardinals, they have embarrassed the bottom feeders and the Commanders qualify. There is no comparison on offense.
The league’s 6th best offense is averaging 367.3 yards per game, and they’ll face the worst defense in the league with Washington allowing 385.8 total yards per game.
We can’t imagine Howell or Brissett having success against a Cowboys secondary that allows just 18 completions per game. Head to head the Cowboys have covered four of the last five games, make that five of six.
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