Vikings-Lions Free Pick: Detroit Can Still Get No. 2 Seed

To their credit, the Detroit Lions took their shot at the No. 2 seed in last week’s game with Dallas. If the Lions convert the 2-pointer, they’re the No. 2 seed from the NFC. Detroit can still get there. But they’ll need to win and have Washington beat Dallas. That’s unlikely. But stranger things have happened in the NFL. The Lions play at 1 p.m. ET. Dallas plays at 4:25 p.m. ET. So you can count on a reasonable effort from Detroit, which will be touched on in this Vikings-Lions free pick. The NFL spreads have Detroit favored by three points, and the game’s total is 45.5 points. Detroit is -230 on the moneyline.

Minnesota Stinks It Up Against Packers

The Vikings entered last week in decent shape for the NFL playoffs. They exited last week on life support but are still mathematically alive. Of course, the chances of Minnesota beating Detroit and Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle all losing are slim. But that’s what the Vikings need to happen.

Minnesota wouldn’t be in bad shape if it had played a little better down the stretch. But losing five out of your last six NFL games is a quick ticket to the golf course, while other teams are gearing up for the postseason. No time did the Vikings play worse, than last week against Green Bay.

The Vikings weren’t just bad. They were horrible. The offense was bad, and the defense was even worse. Minnesota was outgained 470 to 211, and Green Bay had 28 first downs compared to 13 for Minnesota.

The Vikings haven’t announced a starting quarterback for the game. Jaren Hall was just bad in the first half. Nick Mullens was a little better, but the Vikings came up empty a couple of times deep in Green Bay territory.

The Vikings have played better on the road this NFL season, so there is that. Minnesota was just 2-6 at home and 5-3 on the road this season. Minnesota pushed its last two road games against the spread.

Detroit Looks to Bounce Back After Questionable Loss

The Lions are the NFC North champions and still can earn the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. It’s unlikely to happen. But there is a possibility. Detroit needs to win here first and then worry about the rest later.

The Lions are 11-5 straight-up and against the spread this year. In over-under betting, Detroit has posted a 10-6 mark, making the Lions one of the top over teams in the league.

Detroit is averaging 26.9 points per game against teams, allowing 21.2 points. The Lions total 395.7 yards per game, with 140.1 coming on the ground. The Lions pass for 255.6 yards per game. At home, the Lions scored 30.6 points per game and allow 21.9.

The Lions have defended the run pretty well. But Detroit has struggled with pass defense, allowing 240.4 yards per game and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. However, it may not matter against Minnesota, which has a quarterback dilemma on its hands. Mullens has outplayed Hall and Joshua Dobbs. But the Vikings may want to look at those two with an eye on next year.

What to Expect

The Vikings aren’t likely to have much success running the ball against Detroit. Minnesota had just 17 yards when these NFL teams played two weeks ago.

So, expect a lot of passing out of the Vikings, which necessarily isn’t a good thing, depending on who plays quarterback. Mullens will get you some yards, but he’s also prone to making some turnovers. He threw four interceptions last game against the Lions.

The Lions rushed for 143 yards two weeks ago against the Vikings. They’re likely to try and run the ball again, at least until Minnesota shows it can stop the rush. The Vikings have allowed 310 rushing yards the past two games, as the defense looks to have worn down a bit.

Who to Bet On?

The Vikings-Lions free pick notes the point spread is a little bit low here. Apparently, not everybody is sold on the Lions making an all-out effort to secure the No. 2 seed.

The Vikings-Lions free pick on the total is a tough call right now. Detroit hasn’t said anything about resting starters, especially with the No. 2 spot still a possibility. But Minnesota’s NFL injuries have mounted on the offensive side of the ball. Getting a lot of production out of it could be asking for a lot.

The Vikings don’t look like a team fighting for their playoff lives. It’s a definite longshot, but the possibility of sneaking in remains. But they’ve become impossible to bet, so we’ll have to take the Lions in this one and lay the small number.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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