2024 NFL Gambling Trends: What Has the 2023 Season Taught Us?
Absolutely Nothing, But We’ll Try Cooking Something Up Anyway!
If simply watching the NFL, compiling stats, and analyzing trends meant we’d all be rich making bets, sportsbooks would all close down. NFL football remains an unpredictable phenomenon, which is also why we love it so much. This season, 2023, has already been one worth breaking down given all the chaos that it’s generated. We look to the most noticeable developments and see how it may affect the NFL’s 2024 gambling trends.
Totals Go Under Like Starting Quarterbacks
Injuries continue to wreak havoc in the NFL. We’re seeing a quarter of the starting quarterbacks go down and it’s been partially responsible for why the majority of games have gone under their totals. But we’re not blaming backup quarterbacks. As a matter of fact, they’ve been solid. Teams, in general, are just not scoring enough to go ‘over’ the totals.
Out of 32 NFL teams, only 12 have over/unders that trend toward the ‘over’. And 11 teams, one-third of the league, have had their totals go under at least 66.7% of the time. That’s two out of every three games. It is not surprising then several of these teams like the Giants and Panthers rank among the worst offenses per the NFL stats.
And of the 20 teams whose totals have gone under 53.3% of the time or more, 15 have had starting quarterbacks injured or benched. Las Vegas, which leads ‘under’ trends at 73.3% (4-11-0) switched quarterbacks and head coaches mid-season. Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Daniel Jones are also three notable starting QBs to have their seasons cut short with injuries.
Buffalo, Kansas City, and Baltimore are prominent outliers here. Not only have they had their starters play the entire season, but they’re three Super Bowl contenders per the early NFL gambling lines. In their case, they are three of the top four scoring defenses.
Overall, totals have gone under 54.8% of the time and 56.2% if we exclude games that went to overtime. So fans who love high-scoring games, it’s best not to bet on it to happen unless you’re cheering for the Colts, Browns, and Bengals, who have flourished despite injuries.
Backup Quarterbacks Get Extra Shine
To add to the 15 teams who have had starting quarterback injuries (or got benched for stinking), we can add seven more for the teams whose totals trended ‘over’ at least 53.3% of the time. We mentioned Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. They are all fighting for NFL playoff spots with backups.
Gardner Minshew II has kept Indianapolis afloat with a 6-5 record since he took over starting duties. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco is 4-1 as the Browns’ new starter while is 3-2 with the Bengals. Flacco is pushing Damar Hamlin for the Comeback Player of the Year Award. The 2024 gambling trends have Cleveland’s Super Bowl line shortening with him under center.
Still, Flacco and Minshew are exceptions to the rule here. Backup quarterbacks still win only 39.8% of their starts (37-56) this NFL season. And games between backup QBs tend to produce higher-scoring matchups than expected. The average total for games between backup QBs is 44.1 with the totals going over 66.7% of the time (10-5-0) as of December 30.
Offense Over Defense? Standings Support It
They always say “Defense wins championships”. But you have to make the playoffs to win that Super Bowl title. Thus far, only the top five defensive teams (scoring-wise) in the top 10 are in playoff contention. This is half of the top-10 scoring teams, who are all in a playoff spot heading to Saturday, December 30.
Of these top 10 teams, nine of the top 10 teams in terms of scoring have winning records against the spread (ATS). In contrast, only six of the top-10 scoring defenses do. And if we single out New Orleans and Atlanta, they are in the bottom five as far as cover rate with the former tied with New England for the worst record at 4-10-1 (28.6%).
With the NFL’s next games all having significant playoff implications, we’ll see how these impact the 2024 NFL gambling trends. Playoff atmospheres could produce lower-scoring games with small margins of victory. There’s only one way to find out: watch the games.
For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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