Miami Dolphins 2023 Future Odds: Super Bowl, Conference, Division, Regular Season Wins and Player Props

The Miami Dolphins had a busy offseason. The team hopes to go from being simply a playoff contender to a legitimate Super Bowl threat. The public may be undecided on what to think of Miami given the odds. But if everything breaks right for this team, and it can work past its flaws, they could go all the way. Either way, expect the 2023 Miami Dolphins stats to be prolific.

Miami Dolphins At A Glance

Dolphins are the Protoypical “Boom or Bust” Team

The Dolphins could go all the way and win the Super Bowl or miss the playoffs with a losing record in 2023. Either scenario won’t be shocking, especially considering how Miami’s 2022 season went. The team started the season 8-3 and had wins over Baltimore and Buffalo. But the team lost five of its final six games after quarterback Tua Tagovailoa got hurt.

Miami was 8-5 with Tagovailoa starting but had just one win without him. Despite never playing a full season, Tagovailoa has posted a winning record in each of his first three seasons. Thus, the Dolphins went just a bit over their 8.5 NFL regular season win total last season. They tied their mark in 2021 and went over in 2020.

In short, Miami has been better since drafting Tagovailoa in 2020. But can he stay healthy? That’s been the question with him since he was in college. Last season, Tagovailoa got concussed repeatedly and many even called for him to retire.

If Tagovailoa’s health continues to be at risk, he may just hang it up. This leaves Miami with either Mike White or Skylar Thompson at quarterback. And despite Miami’s supremely talented receiving duo, it’s tough to envision either leading this team past a Wild Card berth.

General manager Chris Grier did a lot this offseason by beefing up the defense and the offensive line. But the OL remains just as sketchy as Miami’s quarterback situation.

Super Bowl Odds: Dolphins But Also, Dogs

At their current line of 22-1, the Dolphins are in the upper-middle portion of the Super Bowl odds. Right beside them are the Lions and Jaguars, two other franchises who could either miss the playoffs or be a Super Bowl threat. But as far as backing any of these underdogs, the Dolphins have arguably the best team.

The receiving duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is perhaps the best one-two in the NFL. And coupled with Mike McDaniel’s coaching chops, the two should lead the 2023 Miami Dolphins stats in the offensive categories. And on the other end, acquiring Jalen Ramsey also gives the ‘Fins the best cornerback tandem on paper.

Conference Odds: Lost in the Shadows

But to even get to the Super Bowl, Miami will need to get past some behemoths in the AFC. Kansas City and Cincinnati are two of three favorites from the conference. And sharing Miami’s division are Buffalo and the New York Jets. Tagovailoa is 2-6 in his career facing the first three teams. He’s 3-0 against the Jets but this is prior to Aaron Rodgers.

The four-time MVP’s addition to New York could make the Jets more formidable. Thus, the Dolphins’ prospective shot depends on their NFL East standing. Miami may settle for a Wild Card spot and will be playing on the road for the playoffs. The team is 11-14 as a visitor since 2020.

Division Odds: Smaller Fish

Miami’s division odds put them behind the Bills (+135) and Jets (+225) at +300. The Dolphins are the underdogs because their quarterback situation is just not as stable as the two. Even if Tagovailoa is healthy and as good as he was during Miami’s 8-3 run, he’s still behind Josh Allen and Rodgers.

He can improve his 2023 Miami Dolphins stats and coupled with the moves Grier made, the gap closes slightly. But the defense needs to improve. The Dolphins gave up the fifth-most passing yards and the sixth-most passing touchdowns last season. That pales in comparison to the New York state teams who both finished in the top four in scoring defense.

Regular Season Wins: A Repeat of 2022

Miami’s regular-season win total indicates that this team could have a deja vu in 2022. Finishing with nine or 10 wins (9.5 at pick’em odds) is likely also an estimation of how many games Tagovailoa will play. He’s averaged 12 regular-season games a year and has a 61.8% winning percentage. That’s about seven wins. That gives Miami three to win without his help.

This is just assuming Tagovailoa plays this many. He could play fewer or more. Also, the schedule should be considered. Miami has the second-hardest schedule if going by last season’s records. The Dolphins already play in a difficult division then must contend with the NFC East and AFC West. It also plays Baltimore. There is little room for error.

To Make Playoffs: Will Fatal Flaw Sink Miami?

As Miami’s projected win total indicates, the team is 50/50 to make the playoffs. Again, this is likely due to the difficulty of predicting the team’s quarterback situation. If Tagovailoa is guaranteed to play 16 or 17 games, Miami’s playoff odds may trend toward “yes”. But if he misses more time, it could go the other way.

On top of that, bettors should monitor how the offensive line plays. Pundits rank Miami’s OL as one of the worst and it’s been partly why Tagovailoa got hurt in 2022. Regardless of who’s throwing the ball, another bad season from the line will torpedo this team’s season.

Side Bets: A Comeback for the Ages

The NFL’s’ Comeback Player of the Year Award is all but locked for Buffalo’s Damar Hamlin. It would be shocking to hear any other name even if he doesn’t play as much on the field. Otherwise, Tagovailoa at 25-1 would be considered a tremendous deal.

Prior to Hamlin’s incident, Tagovailoa had the most shocking injury in the season. It was even dubbed career-threatening. If he can come back and lead the Dolphins to a playoff berth, it may just persuade some voters. Otherwise, few Dolphins stand a chance of winning any individual awards.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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