QB Carousel to Impact NFL’s Regular Season Win Projections
Atlanta Falcons Among Teams on Rise in NFL Expected Regular Season Win Totals
Addition of Russell Wilson Not Helping Steelers’ 2024 Win Total Expectations
There has been plenty of movement so far in the offseason, especially at the quarterback position and that is causing a shift in the NFL odds.
That is evident when looking at the NFL regular season win totals with teams rising and falling in the pecking order since the end of the 2023 season.
There could be even more movement by the time the NFL Draft comes to a close later this month.
The 2023 NFL season came to an end when the Kansas City Chiefs topped the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs and 49ers currently lead the NFL with +600 odds to win Super Bowl LIX.
Here’s a breakdown of the changes in the expected win totals heading into the 2024 season.
Who’s Rising?
A pair of teams from the NFC South could be making strides in 2024.
Atlanta, 7-10 a season ago, has seen the expected win total jump to 10.5 after adding some key players including quarterback Kirk Cousins. With Cousins throwing to receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts while running back Bijan Robinson is ready for an expanded role in his second season, the Falcons could be an improved team.
Carolina, which won just two games in 2023, has nowhere to go but up and that is a reason why the expected win total set at 4.5. It doesn’t hurt that Atlanta and Carolina play in perhaps the worst division in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh after he coached the Michigan Wolverines to the college national title as Michigan delivered as one of the best college football bets. Despite moving on from running back Austin Ekeler as well as receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Chargers have an expected win total of 8.5 after going 5-12 last season.
Arizona, at 6.5 wins according to the NFL regular season win totals, could make a jump after a four-win season while the Washington Commanders are expected to improve after a 4-13 season even with questions at the quarterback position. Washington is likely to address the quarterback position with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft.
Who’s Falling?
The Cleveland Browns used an outstanding defense to win 11 games during the regular season despite some inconsistent play on offense.
Running back Nick Chubb was limited to two games while quarterback Deshaun Watson played in just six games. Even with the Browns welcoming back two of its top offensive players, Cleveland is priced at -130 to go under 8.5 wins in 2024 when it comes to the NFL regular season win totals.
The Dallas Cowboys lost running back Tony Pollard, offensive tackle Tyron Smith, and center Tyler Biadasz on offense. With defensive lineman Johnathan Hankins on the way out and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch retiring, the expectations are a little lower heading into the 2024 season.
The expected win total is at 10.5 after winning 12 regular-season games as the Cowboys look to win at least 10 regular-season games for the fourth season in a row for the first time since the 1990s.
Russ or Bust?
It is a neat trick that both the former and current team for former Super Bowl-winning quarterback Russell Wilson are being downgraded.
The Denver Broncos finished the 2023 season with eight regular-season wins. With Ben DiNucci and Jarrett Stidham the quarterbacks on the Denver roster, the expected win total for Denver is at 5.5 with -110 odds to go over that total.
Wilson is now with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are coming off a 10-7 season but currently have -125 odds to go over 8.5 wins during the regular season. There are concerns about who Wilson will be throwing to after receiver Diontae Johnson was traded away.
What About the Bears?
Chicago is expected to select former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick in the NFL Draft with the Bears trading for Chargers receiver Keenan Allen. The Chicago Bears have another top-10 pick in the draft.
The Bears added running back D’Andre Swift as well as defensive backs Kevin Byard and Jonathan Owens. However, Chicago is priced at -120 to go over 8.5 regular season wins after winning seven games a season ago.
Perhaps the expected wins total will jump for the Bears after the total.
There will be plenty of eyes on the 2024 Chicago Bears with so many new faces expected to have Chicago trending in the right direction.
The Bears were a respectable 8-7-2 against the NFL spread in 2023. Will there be more outright wins in Chicago’s immediate future?
A New York State of Mind?
It was a pretty forgettable 2023 season for the New York Giants and the New York Jets.
With the Giants coming off a strong 2022 season and the Jets adding former MVP-winning quarterback Aaron Rodgers, there was optimism that the Jets and Giants could both post winning seasons.
Instead, with Rodgers going out in the first game of the season and the New York Giants having all sorts of issues, the teams combined to go 13-21.
The Jets have been more active in the offseason and now have an expected regular-season total of 9.5. The Giants have an expected win total of just 6.5. It will be worth watching to see if either team can exceed those expectations.
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