Super Wild Card Weekend Player Props
Look For The Eagles To Bounce Back
Bad news: The NFL regular season is over. Good news: It’s Wild Card weekend, and — from Saturday afternoon through Monday night — there are six playoff games on the docket, each of which has its own level of intrigue.
From the Dolphins venturing to frigid Kansas City, the Packers taking on their former head coach Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys, and Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit, it’s a loaded slate. And, of course, that means plenty of opportunity for Super Wild Card weekend props.
There are seemingly endless options on the board for player props in these games. Plus, the beauty of the staggered schedule is that there will be no overlap between games, which allows everyone to focus on one contest at a time. And, for props bettors? That means there’s even more time to lock in on those certain players in the NFL Wild Card playoffs who feel they can go over because of a particular matchup.
Let’s run through each game to see which props stand out as smart bets to look into:
Cleveland Browns (-2) at Houston Texans
In this one, we have a fascinating quarterback battle between the 38-year-old Joe Flacco — who wasn’t even on the Browns to start the season — and 22-year-old rookie C.J. Stroud. While Flacco has been excellent for Cleveland and won his last four starts of the season until he was rested in Week 18, he has thrown eight interceptions in his five starts. Houston’s pass defense isn’t great, but the Texans have the second-best run defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry, so Flacco could be asked to throw the ball a lot.
Over 0.5 picks for Flacco is -176, which doesn’t provide much value, but Flacco to throw two or more picks is +250, which is very intriguing. Cleveland’s Super Bowl odds hinge on the wily veteran making plays with his big arm. Still, invariably, Flacco’s decision-making and confidence that he can always fit the ball in the right spot leads to turnovers. Plus, Flacco threw two picks (to go with three touchdowns) in Cleveland’s 36-22 win over the Texans in Week 16, so Houston knows what to expect from him.
On the Texans’ side, look for Houston to try to establish the run game early. Cleveland has the No. 1 yardage defense and allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL to boot, so offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik will probably want to take some of the pressure off Stroud in his playoff debut. The over for Devin Singletary’s rushing yards is 64.5 yards at -112, an excellent number for a back having a solid season.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
It’s looking like Saturday night’s game in Kansas City will be one of the coldest games in NFL history, with a wind chill hovering around -30 degrees Fahrenheit.
That is not welcome news for the warm-weather Dolphins despite former Chief Tyreek Hill being used to cold temperatures from playing alongside Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
Regardless, it is not easy to throw or catch a football in such cold weather, which is why taking the under on Tua Tagovailoa’s completions (20.5 at -114) is a potential take.
The Dolphins’ offense is predicated on big plays and while those still might be able to happen in the cold, Miami might want to limit the amount of short passes Tua throws as a turnover prevention mechanism. That’s a good Super Wildcard Weekend prop to consider because fumbles and deflection interceptions tend to rise as the temperature drops (for obvious reasons).
While the Chiefs are more used to wintry conditions, they will certainly affect Kansas City’s offensive game plan. Much has been made this season about the struggles of the Chiefs’ receiving core, and even Kelce hasn’t been at the top of his game.
But it’s playoff time, and Kelce is far and away from Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target, so that’s who he will lean on heavily. He averaged 6.2 catches per game this season and averages 7.4 catches per game in the playoffs in his career. Take Kelce over 5.5 receptions -114.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-10)
Snow game in the playoffs! Buffalo is going to be covered in snow for Sunday afternoon’s game, and weather reports indicate that wind gusts could be as big as 65 miles per hour. Obviously, that’s a sign that offense will be limited, particularly in the passing and kicking games.
Right off the bat, each team’s field goal under is a smart play. The Bills to make under 1.5 field goals is -114, and the Steelers to make under 1.5 field goals is -197, but those odds could get worse as we get closer to game time. It’s just tough to set up for field goals on a snowy field and nearly impossible to make them in such high winds.
Another intriguing pick is “yes” on whether or not there will be a defensive or special teams touchdown scored. Ball security is difficult in such harsh conditions so there is a good chance of multiple fumbles and bad snaps on punts, both of which could leads to defense/special NFL teams scores. Otherwise, it’s tough to consider specific player props here with all the unknowns surrounding the weather.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
The Packers — led by the resurgent Jordan Love — won their final three games of the season to make an unlikely playoff push…and their reward is the Cowboys, whose offense and defense were in the top five in both points and yardage this year. It was not an easy task for a quarterback in his first season as a starter.
Green Bay isn’t particularly dominant in any one area, but the Packers were in the top ten in 2023 in both yards per carry and yards per reception. So, the offense is pretty efficient and only committed 18 turnovers, good for sixth in the NFL.
The way to beat the Cowboys is by being smart with the ball and not trying to make risky, big plays. That’s why Jordan Love’s completions over (23.5 completions at -103) is a solid pick. Matt LaFleur won’t have him taking big chances because Green Bay will employ a balanced attack to limit Dallas’ ball-hawking tendencies. It helps that Love completed over 64% of his passes this season.
Another Super Wildcard Weekend prop to take is for the Cowboys to kick the game’s longest field goal (-130). Both Dallas’ Brandon Aubrey and Green Bay’s Anders Carlson are impressive rookies, but Aubrey is a perfect 10-for-10 on 50+ yard kicks and didn’t miss any field goals until Week 18. Carlson has had trouble on extra points and is only 3-for-5 on 50+ yard kicks. Aubrey also has the advantage of kicking in his home stadium, where he’s comfortable. Dallas has a significant edge in that aspect of this one.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3)
This is the homecoming to end all homecomings for Matthew Stafford. On Sunday night in primetime, the former No. 1 overall pick by the Lions will go back to Detroit for the first time since he was traded for Jared Goff, who has led Dan Campbell’s team to its first 12-win season since 1991.
Look for the Rams to throw the ball a ton against a Lions’ defense that allowed the second-fewest rushing yards and the sixth-most passing yards. Lions’ opponents average 6.7 yards per pass attempt, the fourth-most in the league. The over for Stafford’s passing yards is 276.5; at -130, that’s good value.
Detroit’s offense is more split between the pass and run. Because the Rams are one of the worst teams in the league at forcing turnovers, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson — a hot name on the head-coaching market — should let Goff take chances down the field.
That bodes well for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. St. Brown’s receiving yards over is 88.5 yards (-122), and Williams’ is 35.5 (-112); those are each smart picks with tight end Sam LaPorta dealing with a knee injury.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Now, this is an interesting one. Thanks to a huge late-season collapse, the Eagles blew their once-near-certain opportunity to win the NFC East and limp into the postseason as a Wild Card team that has to go on the road to play the 9-8 Buccaneers.
Understandably, there isn’t much hype around Philadelphia these days, but it would be unwise to count out such a talented offense. Philadelphia has a ton of weapons — even if A.J. Brown is out — for Jalen Hurts, dealing with a finger injury of unknown severity, to utilize.
We don’t know if Hurts will be limited from a throwing perspective but he should be totally fine to run and bulldoze over defenders on the ground as he likes to do. So, Hurts at +450 to score the game’s first touchdown is a reliable bet. If anything has consistently works for the Eagles this season, it has been Hurts taking it himself be it via the Brotherly Shove or another designed run.
Don’t expect Tampa Bay to get much from its bottom-ranked ground game on offense, so Baker Mayfield will lean on his top two wideouts, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
The target and reception totals are similar between them, but Evans is the touchdown-maker, while Godwin has become more of a possession-type receiver. Evans will garner most of the attention from the injured and unproductive Eagles’ secondary — Philly allowed the second-most pass yards in the NFL — which could give Godwin some nice one-on-one opportunities. Take his pretty low receiving yards over (54.5 yards) at -114.
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