One glimpse at UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira Fight Night and any fight fan will know: we are in for maximum violence. There is no pussyfooting around, especially with the pay-per-view portion, as all five fights are expected to end in a finish. And this is not like the last fight night that produced a snoozefest despite the odds. We have knockout artists and finishers ready to thrill in New York City.
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Day/Time: Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Broadcasts: Pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+
Pereira Favored to Starch Prochazka in Main Event
A few months ago, Alex Pereira got knocked out and lost his middleweight belt. Now, he’s favored to win the light heavyweight title as he takes on the former champion, Jiri Prochazka. Pereira opened at -125 and is now at -130 despite plenty of pushback on the UFC line movements. And Pereira’s most likely method of victory is by knockout at even odds.
Prochazka has been out of action since suffering a shoulder injury last December. He could be rusty, which is not a good combo with his reckless fighting style. The Czech samurai absorbs 5.4 significant strikes per minute with a 40% defense. Compare that to Pereira’s 5.11 significant strikes landed per minute at a 62% clip, and it could be a short night.
Of course, Prochazka has prevailed as an underdog many times. He’s now at +110 but won his UFC debut as a +150 dog. Pereira is the better striker here. But Prochazka could be the better martial artist. Either way, the Prochazka vs Pereira Fight Night odds imply a high likelihood of a finish: an 86.7% chance based on its line: -650.
Aspinall and Pavlovich Make For a Better Heavyweight Title Fight
It was upsetting to have Jon Jones, the current heavyweight champion and greatest fighter ever, pull out of UFC 295’s original main event. But getting Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall to fill the void as the co-main event is not an inadequate substitute. They are two of the UFC’s best fighters and are #2 and #4 on the UFC rankings. Many will say they should be #1 and #2, respectively.
Pavlovich has a 100% finish-to-win ratio, and most of that have come in the first round. He’s a very slight underdog at -110, while Aspinall is at -120. Sharp money came in strong for Aspinall, who is the lighter but speedier of the two. The Briton’s only loss was due to an injury. But like Pavlovich, he’s finished all his UFC opponents and within the 1.5-round mark.
For obvious reasons, the prop on this fight to end in a finish is significantly juiced at -1600. And the total of 1.5 rounds leans heavily on the ‘under’ at -215. With both men’s potent abilities to finish fights, their walkouts may be twice longer than the fight.
More Finishers To Bet On For UFC 295
The other featured bouts on the Prochazka vs Pereira Fight Night main card should produce some violent outcomes as well. Even the women’s strawweight bout, which typically goes to a decision, is lined at -200 not to go the distance. Mackenzie Dern, the multiple-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion, should submit Jessica Andrade as the -195 favorite.
Dern’s last four fights have ended in a decision, but not for lack of trying. She’s averaged a 1.5 submission attempt per 15 minutes. And Andrade, the +165 underdog, was finished within the 1.5-round mark in her last three fights. She’s long in the tooth and may be showing up to collect paychecks.
Another bout to pay attention to is the one between Matt Frevola and Benoit Saint-Denis. These lightweights hit like trucks and fight aggressively. Thus, this bout is unlikely to need judges. The sportsbook has lined it at -400 to be finished with the total of 1.5 rounds to go under at -150. Saint-Denis favored at -230 though both men are on winning streaks.
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