EPL Matchday 1 Preview, Odds: Matches of the Week
Manchester City Kick Off Title Defense
Chelsea vs. Liverpool Headlines Weekend
Manchester City have won the last three Premier League titles and will kick off yet another title defense on Friday. The Cityzens head to Burnley, who Manchester City legend Vincent Kompany coaches. Elsewhere, title challengers Arsenal host Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United host Aston Villa. The weekend’s headliner is Chelsea vs. Liverpool, as both teams look to bounce back from disappointing 2022-23 campaigns. With many good matches in store, we’ll look at the odds in our EPL Matchday 1 Preview.
Matches of the Week
Burnley vs Manchester City
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Burnley are back in the Premier League after just one season in the Championship. Former Manchester City captain and defender Vincent Kompany has instilled confidence in Burnley. It’s a big test for Burnley to open up their EPL schedule with three-time defending champions Manchester City.
Our EPL Matchday 1 Preview notes that City lost in penalties to Arsenal in the FA Community Shield last Sunday. Kevin de Bruyne did return to action as a substitute, but he and Rodri missed their penalties. Expect Pep Guardiola to motivate his players in their first Premier League match.
As Manchester City head on the road, they’re still 1.5-goal favorites. The Cityzens show -120 odds to cover and are -350 moneyline favorites. They also recently announced the signing of one of the world’s best young center backs, Josko Gvardiol. With record-breaking striker Erling Haaland and Gvardiol, City are starting to build a young core.
Burnley won the EFL Championship last season and lost just one match at Turf Moor in the process. Burnley +1.5 comes in at -110 odds, while the hosts are +850 moneyline underdogs. They’ve made some exciting signings this Summer, like goalkeeper James Trafford, defender Jordan Beyer and striker Zeki Amdouni.
However, City have won their last seven matches vs. Burnley and have outscored the Clarets 25-0 in the process. A draw displays +475 odds, while under three goals are priced at -125 odds.
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest
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Arsenal are riding high after their dramatic FA Community Shield victory. The Gunners trailed deep into stoppage time, but Leandro Trossard’s deflected effort managed to find the net in the 101st minute. The Gunners were victorious in penalties as all four players converted their PKs, and Aaron Ramsdale saved Rodri’s effort.
Ramsdale may be getting some competition soon, as the Gunners are after Brentford goalkeeper David Raya. With Summer signings Declan Rice, Jurrien Timber and Kai Havertz, the Gunners are well-stocked heading into the season. They’ll host Nottingham Forest on Saturday, who finished 16th in the EPL standings last season. Meanwhile, Arsenal famously blew their lead to Manchester City and are looking to challenge the Cityzens this season.
Heading into Saturday’s match at the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal are two-goal favorites. Last season, Arsenal defeated Forest 5-0 at home but lost 1-0 away in May. Arsenal -2 shows -105 odds, while Forest +2 sits at -125. Forest have reportedly agreed on a deal with Arsenal for goalkeeper Matt Turner, who could play against his former team on Saturday, medical-permitting.
Forest also struck deals for forward Chris Wood and winger Anthony Elanga over the Summer. Still, Arsenal are a much better team on paper, coming in at -435 odds to win. Forest haven’t won away at Arsenal since 1989 and are +1075 moneyline favorites here. Meanwhile, a draw is priced at +555 odds and the over/under goal total is 3.5. Arsenal have scored ten goals total vs. Forest in the last two meetings at the Emirates, but under 3.5 goals show -130 odds here.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
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One of the best matches of the weekend is Newcastle United vs. Aston Villa. Both teams qualified for European competition last season. Newcastle will be in the UEFA Champions League after finishing fourth and Aston Villa will make their first appearance in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Both teams’ EPL scores last season were much better than expected. Aston Villa’s fortunes transformed pretty much overnight when Unai Emery replaced Steven Gerrard as coach.
Only three teams earned more points than Villa from when Emery was appointed until the end of the season. Villa also displayed ambition in the transfer market by bringing in Youri Tielemans, Moussa Diaby and Pau Torres. Newcastle made a signature signing of their own, in former AC Milan midfielder Sandro Tonali and also replaced Allan Saint-Maximin with Harvey Barnes.
Last season, Newcastle lost just two Premier League matches at St James’ Park and it’s one of the most challenging places to play in England. The Magpies come into their season opener as -135 moneyline favorites, and Newcastle -0.5, -1 shows -115 odds. Before Emery took over at Aston Villa last season, Eddie Howe’s Newcastle destroyed Villa 4-0 at home.
Notably, the road team hasn’t won any of the last 15 meetings between these two sides. Aston Villa are +345 underdogs here, and Villa +0.5, +1 is priced at -115 odds. The home team has picked up a shutout win in the last four fixtures, but a draw displays +295 odds here. Newcastle had the joint-best defensive record in the league last season, but over 2.5 goals stand at -125 odds.
Chelsea vs Liverpool
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EPL Matchday 1 Previews generally list Chelsea vs. Liverpool as the match of the weekend. Both teams had disappointing seasons in 2022-23. Chelsea missed out on European competition, while Liverpool finished in fifth place and will participate in the Europa League. Chelsea’s overhaul continued in the Summer as owner Todd Boehly hired former Tottenham coach Mauricio Pochettino.
Plenty of players departed the club over the Summer, including those who played a role in Chelsea’s 2021 Champions League triumph. Kai Havertz, Mateo Kovacic, Christian Pulisic, Mason Mount and Edouard Mendy are all gone. Boehly again splashed the cash to bring in Nicolas Jackson, Christopher Nkunku, Axel Disasi, Lesley Ugochukwu and Robert Sanchez.
Meanwhile, Fabinho, Jordan Henderson, Roberto Firmino, Naby Keita and James Milner all left Liverpool over the Summer. Liverpool’s shrewd transfer strategy saw them land Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis MacAllister. Liverpool scored at least three goals in all of their preseason matches and still have an explosive offense.
Sunday’s match is expected to be competitive and is listed as a pick’em. Incredibly, in all competitions, the last four meetings between the two sides have finished in scoreless draws. The last six matches overall have finished in draws and another one displays +240 odds here. Liverpool are favored here as Chelsea pk comes in at +110 odds and Liverpool pk sits at -140.
Despite this fixture’s distinct lack of goals recently, over 2.5 goals show -150 odds. Liverpool have an implied 41.7 percent chance of victory as they are priced at +140 moneyline odds. Meanwhile, Chelsea stand at +140 odds to kick off their season with a win.
