Pirates vs D’Backs Preview: Arizona Limping Into All-Star Break

After getting swept for the first time in 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks will close baseball’s first half looking for a bit of redemption. Next up is a three-game set at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates, starting Friday (9:40 p.m. ET). Arizona, which took two of three from Pittsburgh in May, is a -180 favorite to win the series. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is priced at +150. Read on for our Pirates vs D’Backs preview.

Time for Concern in ‘Zona?

The Arizona Diamondbacks (50-38) were swept for the first time this season Thursday, losing 9-0 to the New York Mets. Arizona was outscored 19-6 in the three-game series, as its losing streak hit a season-high four games. It was also their first shutout loss.

To add injury to insult, All-Star outfielder Corbin Carroll left the game with a right shoulder injury. Carroll, 22, who has a history of shoulder issues, is scheduled to undergo an MRI Friday. He is currently day-to-day.

Carroll appeared to suffer the injury on a swing, grabbing his upper right arm. He was immediately lifted from the game. Afterward, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said the team received encouraging news on Carroll based on an initial exam. However, Carroll is not out of the woods just yet.

He underwent surgery on the same shoulder in May 2021, and he left a game left a June 29 game against Tampa Bay because of shoulder soreness. His status is worth monitoring as you assess the odds in our Pirates vs D’Backs preview.

Losing Carroll for any length of time would be a devastating blow for Arizona. He’s hitting .290 with 18 home runs and 24 stolen bases. As such, he’s begun to run away with the NL Rookie of the Year award. He is listed as high as -650.

Arizona’s lead over the Dodgers in the NL West is now down to just a half game. Because of that, the Diamondbacks have dropped to +250 to win the division and +1200 to make the MLB World Series.

Rough Going for Pitt

So much for that hot start. Since the calendar turned to May, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 20-36 and have fallen to fourth place in the NL Central. At 40-47, they’re now 8.5 games behind the division-leading Reds.

Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes (back) was activated from the Injured List Thursday, but his return is unlikely to rejuvenate the Pirates. Pittsburgh, which owns the fourth-worst run differential (minus-43) in the NL, has lost five of its last six and ranks near the bottom in most offensive categories. As such, Pittsburgh is now a +1400 longshot to make the playoffs.

Pittsburgh is 25th in runs scored, 26th in home runs and 21st in batting average.

Odds Outlook

Arizona has been extremely profitable for bettors. The Diamondbacks are 51-37 against the run line this season, registering the fourth-highest cover rate in baseball behind the Reds (56-32), Orioles (51-35) and Rangers (52-36). Additionally, Arizona is 24-19 ATS when favored.

Conversely, Pittsburgh is just 41-46 ATS, including 34-33 as an underdog. Keep that in mind when making MLB score predictions.

Gallen has gone 10-3 with a 3.15 ERA, positioning himself as a +165 favorite for the NL Cy Young. For comparison’s sake, he was +10000 in spring training. Gallen is tied for eighth in MLB with 120 strikeouts and has made 10 quality starts. The right-hander’s worst start of the MLB season coincidentally came against Pittsburgh on May 19: 3.2 innings, eight runs (five earned) with four walks in a 13-3 loss.

Pittsburgh counters with Hill, who is 7-8 with a 4.50 ERA. At 43, the left-hander is the oldest active MLB player in baseball.

Arizona currently shows -1.5 (EV) favorite on the run line and -200 to win outright. Pittsburgh is priced at +170. The projected total is 8.5, (-115/-115).

Keller earned his first All-Star nod after going 9-4 with a 3.52 ERA. The 27-year-old right-hander ranks sixth in baseball with 125 strikeouts in 110 innings. He allowed two runs over six innings while striking out eight in a 4-3 loss to Arizona on May 20. The Diamondbacks have yet to announce a starter.

Davies, pitching for his fourth MLB team since 2019, owns an unsightly 6.52 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Control (22 walks in 48.1 innings) has been an issue for the right-hander. Pittsburgh remains undecided on a starter. That could affect the odds in our Pirates vs D’Backs preview.

For Pirates vs D’Backs standings, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• Orioles vs Twins Series Preview: Youth Movement Sparking Baltimore
• Mets vs Padres Betting Preview: Analyzing the MLB Matchup
• Reds vs Brewers Preview: Race for National League Central Heating Up
• Mariners vs Astros Odds: Houston Favored Over Seattle
• Braves vs Rays Betting Odds: Elite Matchup in 3-Game Series