Opening College Football Week 7 Odds: Tracking Line Movement

There’s been little college football line movement for the second straight week. Most of the bigger line moves seen so far this week are games moving several points. It’s safe to say the sportsbook has done a good job with its opening numbers. Depending on the numbers, a small line move could be more significant than a larger move and there are a few of those this week. It’s time to take a look at the opening college football Week 7 odds and see where some of the point spreads have moved.

The Fresno State Bulldogs visit Utah State for a Friday night game and the opening college football Week 7 odds had Fresno State -7. The line is down to Bulldogs -4, as Utah State has gotten a little bit of sharp action. This one features a pair of solid offenses, but just one good defense. The Aggies score 4.7 more points than Fresno State, but allow 14 more points per game than the Bulldogs.

Utah State is a decent rushing team, but Fresno State does a strong job defending the run. Both NCAAF teams are averaging right around 300 passing yards per game, so the two should be airing it out plenty. The total has moved from 57 to 56 on the game, but both teams should at least be in the upper 20s in terms of points scored, so will go against the small totals move and take the over 56.

Troy visits Army for a Saturday afternoon game and the point spread on the game has moved from Troy -3 to Troy -5.5. The line move isn’t too surprising. The Trojans are 4-2 on the season, while Army is 2-3, and Troy has played a tougher schedule. Army is throwing the ball a bit more this NFL season and having some success through the air. The Black Knights still run the ball 47 times per game and throw 16. But Army is averaging just 200.6 yards on the ground and 156.6 through the air.

Troy is more balanced on offense and runs for 179.5 and throws for 264.5. The teams allow basically the same number of points defensively, with Troy being better against the run and Army a little better against the pass. This is a tough game to call and the line is pretty much where it should be.

Akron visits Central Michigan for a MAC game Saturday afternoon and the opening college football Week 7 odds of Central Michigan -13 have moved to CMU -11. It’s a bit unusual for a team as bad as Akron to see the line move in its direction. The Zips are just 1-5 in the college football standings despite playing a pretty weak schedule. Akron doesn’t run the ball well and isn’t that good throwing the ball. The defense leaves a bit to be desired, so at least the Zips are consistent.

Central Michigan is a bit below average on both sides of the ball. But that’s still a bit better than Akron. The Chippewas are 3-3 straight-up and 2-4 against the spread. Central Michigan did come home on the right side of the NCAA football scores against South Alabama, winning 34-30 as 16.5-point underdogs. But CMU is 0-3 ATS as a favorite, so have to believe Akron +11 is the right side in this game.

There are some pretty good college football games on Saturday. This isn’t one of them. But that hasn’t stopped bettors from moving San Jose State from 9.5-point favorites to 8-point favorites. The Spartans have just a win over the Cal Poly Mustangs this season and are 1-5. The Lobos are 2-3, but have played a woefully easy schedule.

San Jose State has played the No. 10 schedule in the country, according to the Sagarin college football rankings. It’s little wonder the Spartans don’t stack up too well in the stats department. Still, San Jose State’s scoring averages aren’t that much different from New Mexico’s. The Lobos outscore San Jose State 28.6 to 28.0, while New Mexico allows 31 points per game compared to 33.7 for the Spartans. Those who rely on strength of schedule ratings for their handicapping are going to be on San Jose State. Those who don’t will likely be on New Mexico.

North Texas has moved from 8-point favorites to 6-point favorites in this one. While just two points, it’s a pretty significant move, as it crossed the key number of 7. Both teams are off to disappointing starts. Temple is 2-4 straight-up and 1-5 against the spread, while North Texas is 2-3 straight-up and ATS. Both teams expected to be better. They were never going to be among the NCAAF championship odds favorites, but at least .500 or better at this point of the season.

North Texas is the better of the two teams offensively, while the Owls get a slight edge on the defensive side. Neither team has played a difficult schedule, with the Owls getting a bit of edge for having played slightly tougher foes. The line move is a key one and have to side with the Owls +6.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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