2023 NFL Black Monday Odds: How Many Coaches Get Relieved?

NFL Odds Expect An Uneventful “Black Monday”

The Monday after the regular NFL season comes to an end, it usually culminates in several head coaches being given the pink slip. Dubbed “Black Monday”, the NFL odds paint a more optimistic future with an implied probability of 56.7 percent (-155) that fewer than three coaches will get the axe.

The Black Monday “Favorites”

Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury is the runaway favorite to be fired next at -350 on the sportsbook. The Cardinals have lost six straight, are 4-12 on the NFL records, and have one home win since NFL Week 7 of last season.

It doesn’t help that Kyler Murray, the NFL team‘s franchise quarterback, had some unflattering comments regarding the play calling during the season.

A distant runner-up to Kingsbury is Houston’s Lovie Smith. The Texans let David Culley go last season and he won twice as many games as Smith this season.

If Houston does part ways with Smith, it would mean searching for a new coach for the fourth straight year.

The Texans will likely have the top pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. It will most likely use that to take a quarterback like Bryce Young or CJ Stroud based on the NFL draft pick odds.

Management will likely go with an offensive coach to fit their new franchise quarterback and Smith is not that guy.

Kevin Stefanski from Cleveland Browns is surprisingly in third place at +600 on the 2023 NFL Black Monday odds table. The Browns are currently 7-9 and it would be their second straight season with a losing record. Most damning of Stefanski is the play of quarterback Deshaun Watson.

The Browns invested heavily by trading for the much-maligned QB. His underwhelming play, a career-worst passer rating of 78.1, could cost Stefanski his job much as it did with Nathaniel Hackett in Denver with Russell Wilson.

An outside “contender” to be the next fired is New Orleans Saints Dennis Allen. Like Smith, he could be a one-season wonder. Allen is supposed to be a defensive coach.

But the Saints’ vaunted defense fell to 13th when it was a top-five unit in the previous two seasons. The Saints will also finish with a losing record for the first time since 2016.

Will McDaniels and Bowles Stay Put?

At longshot odds, Las Vegas Raiders Josh McDaniels (+1800) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers Todd Bowles (+1400) are likely to keep their jobs. At least, for now.

McDaniels appeared to already be in hot water when his Raiders opened the season with a 2-7 record. But since then, Las Vegas rallied and have finished somewhat strong.

Owner Mark Davis also voiced his support for McDaniels. There is also speculation that Tom Brady will move on to another team this off-season. Keeping McDaniels at the helm could entice Brady as he reunites with a familiar play caller.

As for Brady’s current coach, Bowles, he likely saved himself when he beat Carolina and clinched a playoff spot. NFL Injuries also whittled away at Tampa Bay so he’s got that as an excuse as well.

The Bucs also remained a top defensive team, ranking eighth in both points and yardage.

Some Potential Surprise Firings

Other than those coaches, there is an outside chance we see some surprise firings. The Washington Commanders, who are favored to be sold this year, could choose a new front office.

This means Ron Rivera is likely on his way out. It may even come earlier as the Commanders missed the playoffs for a second consecutive season and their defense, which is his forte, was just average (14th in scoring).

Chicago’s Matt Eberflus could get booted this 2023 NFL Black Monday. Typically, coaches do not get let go after just one season.

But the Chicago Bears got even worse under Eberflus and its current nine-game losing skid is the longest in franchise history. Chicago’s defense has also bottomed out for the first time in over a hundred years.

For a total shocker, how about Brandon Staley with the Chargers? Sure, he led the team to the playoffs for the first time since 2018.

But the team remains terrible on defense. Management may also elect to pair Justin Herbert, their flourishing star quarterback, with a more offensive-minded coach or a more established hotshot like Sean Payton or Jim Harbaugh.

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