NFL Week 13 Matchups: Late Game Spotlight & Betting Analysis

Five Late Games Round Out Sunday, Week 13 Matchups

• Favorites are 76-100-4 (43.18%) -3056 units (Based on a $100 wager)
• Road favorites 28-40-2 (41.18%) -1452 units
• New York Giants (+443 units), Tennessee Titans 8-3 (+441), and Cincinnati Bengals are 8-3 ATS to lead the league. Denver is 3-8 ATS (-529 units) worst in the NFL
• Underdogs since 2018-19 are 648-544 (54.36%) +5969 units
• Teams receiving less than 50% of the ticket count are 66-45-2 (59.46%) +1547 units, and 488-422 (53.63%) +3184 units since 2018-19

Rams Completely Different Look this Season

NFL Week 13 Matchups Preview: To say that this hasn’t been the NFL season Sean McVay expected out of his defending champions is an understatement. A year ago the Rams dominated most NFL team stats, especially defensively, but this year’s version doesn’t strike fear in the hearts of most opponents.

The Rams are still a top-10 defense but rank 29th in takeaways (9). To make matters worse, DT Aaron Donald will not play while dealing with a high ankle sprain injury. That adds to the NFL injury list QB Matthew Stafford and TE Cooper Kupp.

With that being said, one has to wonder if the Arizona Cardinals started a blueprint on how to attack the Seahawks defensively in week 10. Over the last three games, Seattle has given up 27.3 PPG. If they’re in that ballpark again, we don’t feel comfortable laying over a touchdown against a team with nothing to lose.

It would be hard to find another team in the NFL that is more difficult to bet on than the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2019, Pete Carroll’s team is 30-29 ATS (-97 units). The Rams are 8-2 ATS against Seattle in Los Angeles and have covered five of their last six meetings. The Hawks have failed to cover 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 7-10 points.

Dolphins a Heavy Hitter

The NFL standings show that this weekend is filled with compelling matchups with the Dolphins/49ers clash being one of them. There’s no doubt that the Dolphins could be knocking on the door of a trip to the Super Bowl, but we’ve always believed that the best teams are the clubs with balance, something the Dolphins don’t have on offense.

To make a comparison to the old Dan Marino-led teams, the 2022 version doesn’t feature a running game either. We believe that hurts them against the better teams in the league. Miami is securely in line for a playoff spot but still throws the ball too much. Their acquisition of RB Jeff Wilson Jr tells us that Miami brass isn’t getting enough out of Raheem Mostert despite a recent surge. Until we see more balance we’ll go against the ‘Fins when playing  against teams the caliber of San Francisco.

San Francisco 49ers is just 3-2 ATS at home this season, but Miami is just 19-24 ATS on the road since 2017-18. To go back further, the Dolphins are 37-45 ATS on the road since 2012. Only six other teams are worse than Miami on the road over the last 11 seasons. The ‘Niners have covered 16 of their last 23 games overall.

Chargers Can Never Find Their Groove

Continuing Our NFL Week 13 Matchups Preview: We always knew that the Raiders’ success this season would come down to how they fared in the trenches. The focus in the preseason was their running game and would the secondary be good enough to hold receivers in check until Maxx Crosby could create havoc in the backfield.

The running game has been average at best, but more than that the glaring weakness is on the defensive side of the ball. A good defensive team starts with a pass rush, and over the last few weeks, the Vegas Raiders pass rush hasn’t been just Maxx Crosby who has 10.5 sacks on the season.

Add to the mix, tackles Andrew Billings and Bilal Nichols who were instrumental in stuffing the Seahawks’ run game while making Geno Smith uncomfortable in the pocket. We’re not ready to commit to the Raiders with the confidence of other teams this week, but if they continue to progress up the middle the under will be an easy ticket to cash.

Las Vegas has rushed for 392 yards over the last two weeks, out gaining Denver and Seattle by 133 total yards on the ground. The Raiders are 12-9 ATS against teams over .500 but are a perfect 3-0 this season. Since 2019, the Chargers are 3-4 ATS against the Raiders. The Raiders held Seattle to just 65 yards rushing last week.

Chiefs in Playoff Form, Bengals Formidable Foe

We have football statistics for many things, ATS records after having a baby isn’t one of them. Patrick Mahomes is now a Father after he and his wife had their first child this week. Baby or not Mahomes is a profitable 38-34 ATS over the course of his career (regular NFL season), but it would be easy to say that the Chiefs still haven’t found their stride despite a 9-2 SU record, backed up by their 4-7 ATS mark, the worst ATS start in Mahomes career.

KC owns the same 4-7 ATS mark against teams playing over .600 ball, like the Bengals, but we’re going to dip into our bag of experience and take KC in a game that we think has been circled for a few weeks, considering a win would send a clear message to the rest of the AFC in what is clearly one of the week 13 featured matchups.

The under is 8-3 in their last 11 meetings and 6-2 in the Chiefs’ last eight games against the AFC. Since 2013, KC is 47-28 (63%) on the road and 29-20 ATS as a road favorite in that span. Since 2013, the Chiefs are 17-9 ATS as a less than four-point road favorite. Cincinnati Bengals is 6-7 ATS in the month of December since 2019.

Colts Focusing on Saturday but Sunday is the Problem

Concluding Our NFL Week 13 Matchups Preview: We’ve seen this before with the Cowboys and we’re not falling for it this time. Two things going against Dallas to cover this big number here.

First, it’s not inconceivable that Dallas will be less than focused after a big win against a division rival on Thanksgiving, and second, the Cowboys have not played well in these one-off AFC games. Since 2017, the Cowboys are just 10-11 ATS against the AFC. There is so much talk about Dallas free agent WR Odell Beckham, Jr, but their success still comes down to the running game and their deep pool of tight ends. Dallas, who has three games coming up against AFC opponents, will grind out a win here

The Colts have proven that they may one of the most overlooked teams in the NFL with their stellar 23-11 ATS record against teams with a winning record. That number gets better against teams playing over .600 ball, with the Colts covering 18 of their last 26, including 2 of 3 this season. Even more remarkable, is the Indiana Colts record against teams playing .700 or better (37-20 ATS since 2006, 13-7 ATS since 2017).

That concludes our preview of the late week 13 matchups. As we near the end of the season, bankroll management is as important as ever. Don’t chase your bets and keep wagers in the 1%-3% window.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Looking for more information about the NFL season? Here’s more!

• NFC Mid-Season Betting Report Card
• NFL Totals Odds Report: Games Still Going ‘Under’ Halfway Through 2022
• Bills vs Lions Betting Odds: Ford Field Hosts First Thanksgiving Game of 2022
• 2022 NFL Week 12 Lines and Odds: Late Game Spotlight
• Packers vs Eagles Betting Odds: Ailing Packers Hope to Hang With NFC-Leading Eagles