Bills vs Jets Expert Picks: Best Bet in High-Profile Game is an Ugly One

Bills Slightly Favored Over Jets With Moderate Total

The NFL schedule makers could not have picked a better game to put for the first Monday Night Football of 2023 – two division rivals with elite defenses. This is a perfect matchup as it honors the typical ugly outcome of recent ‘MNF’s. The Bills vs Jets betting odds see Buffalo favored by 2.5 points on the spread. But the total of 46.5 is a tad too high given what should happen here.

Buffalo’s Defense Will Pay the Bills

The Bills were ‘aite’ as a team to bet online last year. Buffalo went 4-3-1 against the spread (ATS), which made them a bit profitable as a road favorite. We can thank their defense for it. Buffalo allowed the hosts to average a measly 17.4 points, which is the fewest by road teams in 2022.

This in turn led to a lot of low NFL scores. This is why all but one of Buffalo’s road games went under their totals (1-7-0). This tied the Rams as the best ‘under’ percentage (87.5%) in 2022. And the good news for Bills’ backers is that the team’s defense could be even better this season.

Buffalo was ravaged by injuries last year. Von Miller and Ed Oliver got hurt from the defensive line. And the secondary lost Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White for good chunks of the season. Now, most are back and healthy to go with reinforcements like Leonard Floyd on the edge.

On offense, Buffalo remains mostly unchanged with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs leading the charge. They’re a big reason why the Bills vs Jets betting odds have this team favored as visitors. But in this game, the Jets’ ‘D’ will give them hell.

It Will be Hard Knocks for Jets, “Forreal”

Like the Bills, the Jets’ bread-and-butter is their defense. Never mind that Aaron Rodgers and the offense have all but monopolized this team’s attention. If the Jets are to make good of optimistic NFL predictions, it would be by way of stopping opponents from scoring. Buffalo is a litmus test of how good this team can be.

Last season, the Jets finished fourth in scoring defense (18.6 points against per game). They held opponents to 20 points or fewer 11 times, including the Bills twice. Coupled with subpar offense, 70.6% of the Jets’ games went under the total (5-12-0). That was the most by any team (tied with Tennessee) in 2022.

Now, with Rodgers quarterbacking, the consensus is that the Jets will be an elite team and finish its best NFL team record since a foot-loving coach last led this team to the Conference Championship over a decade ago.

Robert Saleh will squeeze every ounce of effort and fury out of this team.

“This journey, this climb is about to get hard as *bleep*. It is and that’s the reality of it. There’s going to be a ton of adversity along the way. … They’re all talking about how we have to go through this team, and this division, and this conference, and that quarterback. Well, *bleep*, they have to deal with us too.”

The Jets went 2-3 as a home underdog last season. One win came against the Bills when the Jets were nearly 4-1 underdogs (+385). The Bills vs Jets betting odds have New York right where they want to be as they enter 2023 with chips on their shoulders.

Bills vs Jets Betting Odds

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