Minnesota Vikings 2023 Future Odds
Minnesota Expected to Regress After Surprising Season
The Minnesota Vikings overachieved in 2022. They hold the dubious distinction of winning 13 games while having a negative point differential. Now, the consensus is that Minnesota will regress in a big way. The 2023 Minnesota Vikings stats and odds show a mediocre record as two of its division rivals improved. But as last season proved, this team should not be counted out entirely.
Minnesota Vikings At A Glance
| Odds to Win | Opening Odds | Current Odds |
| Super Bowl | +4000 | +4500 |
| Conference | +1500 | +1600 |
| Division | +280 | +275 |
| Regular Season Win Total | 8.5 (o-110, u-110) | 8.5 (o-130, uEv) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +125, No -150 | Yes +105, No -135 |
Vikings Stay on Planet Earth For 2023
Minnesota went 11-0 in games decided by eight points or fewer in 2022. Quarterback Kirk Cousins led the NFL with eight game-winning drives and fourth-quarter comebacks. It’s highly unlikely he does the same thing per the 2023 Minnesota Vikings stats projections. Thus, the Vikings are due to win fewer games and potentially miss the postseason.
The Vikings blew past its 9.5 regular-season win projection last year. Now, it’s been trimmed to 8.5 though the public have bet the ‘over’. Minnesota still has a manageable NFL schedule even if it could face more resistance from Detroit and Chicago.
The team also lost several key players. Patrick Peterson departs from the secondary while Dalvin Tomlinson and Erick Kendricks leave the front lines. Minnesota has re-tooled by drafting Mekhi Blackmon and Byron Murphy Jr. at cornerback. And the team also replaced Adam Thielen at receiver with Jordan Addison, who proves to be a terrific route runner.
Another notable loss for the team is running back Dalvin Cook. The 27-year-old was a four-time Pro Bowler and logged four consecutive seasons with 1000+ rushing yards. He also had 43 touchdowns. Alexander Mattison replaces him. He rushed for 283 yards on 74 carries last season.
The Vikings’ losses to the rushing game and defense further compound two of their weaknesses last season. The team had the sixth-fewest rushing yards and gave up fifth-worst scoring defense. If the passing attack deteriorates as well, Minnesota could be in for a rough season.
Super Bowl Odds: Pretenders at Best
Despite going 13-4 last season, few bought the Vikings as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. They quickly got exposed in the playoffs as the Giants beat them in their own building. Now, Minnesota is worse on paper and is less likely to win the Super Bowl. Its odds have stretched from 40-1 to 45-1 and could get longer.
Conference Odds: Right in the Middle
At their current odds of 16-1, the Vikings are ranked as the seventh best team of the NFC. They are just ahead of the team that eliminated them, the Giants (18-1) and are behind New Orleans and Seattle (14-1). These are fair projections considering Minnesota’s poor track record in the playoffs coupled with a stagnating team amidst an improving conference.
Division Odds: Valuable Underdogs?
Despite all the skepticism around Minnesota’s upcoming season, +275 to win the division again seems like a hefty chunk of money. Aaron Rodgers has left the NFC North and Minnesota should contend against Detroit. The Lions are getting plenty of love thanks to their strong finish to 2022. But they’re still the Lions, a snakebitten franchise.
Minnesota may not go 11-0 in one-score decisions again. But this team could still win 10 games and edge Detroit for the division. The Vikings have either been first or second in the NFL division standings in six of the last eight years. This divisional race is also one to watch as Minnesota faces Detroit twice in its final three weeks.
Regular Season Wins: Consistency is Hard
The 2023 Minnesota Vikings stats project a team that will win eight or nine games. Folks online have bet on this team to go over 8.5 wins (-130) so even with some regression, Minnesota should be a winning NFL team. The Vikings have yet to record consecutive 10+ win seasons in the last 14 years.
Minnesota has a late bye in Week 13 and it faces Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Kansas City in its first seven weeks. Heading to its break, a lot will depend on how Minnesota fares against the new-look NFC South and the Chicago Bears, who it faces in Week 6 and Week 12.
To Make Playoffs: Plenty of Room
As the public bets on Minnesota to win nine or more games, so too does its playoffs odds move. Minnesota is now listed at +105 to return to the postseason, which is down from +125 in the preseason opener. Even if Minnesota does not win the division, it could still squeak into the playoffs with a 9-8 record.
Again, a lot of this may come down to its meetings against its division. Detroit and Chicago may just be one win away in the standings. The Week 16 and 18 games against Detroit could be must-watch TV if the two are tied for the top spot of the division.
Side Bets: All on Their Shoulders
With the departure of Cook and a defense that could be even worse than last season, more will be placed on Cousins and Justin Jefferson’s shoulders.
The latter was last year’s Offensive Player of the Year after leading the NFL in receptions and receiving yards. He’s listed as the co-favorite to win the award again (10-1), and to lead in the two categories (+600 on both). That might be hard to pull off. A receiver has not won OPOY in consecutive years.
But Cousins might be a better bet to lead the NFL in passing yards (10-1). He was fourth among the 2022 NFL passing leaders and was also third in 2016 when Sean McVay was his offensive coordinator. With Kevin O’Connell, an offensive coach, Cousins could finally lead the league in this category.
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