Baltimore is Worth Betting Against Seattle
Less than 24 hours after we wrote about Baltimore’s crushing beat against Arizona, we’re peddling it as the best bet via our Seahawks vs Ravens expert pick. No need to get trenchant about it: Baltimore is arguably the best NFL team right now. And despite Seattle’s success, the Ravens are equipped to put on a clinic as they did against the Lions. Baltimore is worth it for as long as their spread stays manageable.
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Money Coming in For Baltimore
It seems like the public is on the same side as we are thus far. Baltimore opened at -4.5, and its line is now down to -5.5. With over 90% of early action on the Ravens, this line could get steamed to surpass the six-point mark. That’s where it gets tricky for Baltimore, as this team can have issues scoring touchdowns at times.
But on that note, the Ravens have been tearing up scores and odds lately. Since laboring in the second half against Tennessee, Baltimore has scored 69 points in its past two games. Lamar Jackson has five total touchdowns with no turnovers and just four sacks absorbed. Both games went over the total, so the public could also bet the ‘over’ on the 43 points here.
Per Usual, the Seahawks are Overachieving
The Seahawks have been chronic overachievers since 2018. The team went over its regular-season win totals in four of the last five seasons. And even with Russell Wilson’s departure, Seattle remains a well-oiled machine. Now, seven NFL games into 2023, and Seattle looks to be its most “balanced” since 2018.
Seattle is ranked just outside the top 10 in both scoring and defending. And while three of their wins did come against teams with a combined 4-19 record, the Seahawks also upset Detroit and beat the scrappy underdogs, Cleveland. Thus, we won’t fault other Seahawks vs Ravens expert picks for siding with this team.
The Seahawks are 15-11-1 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog since 2018. And going into his 14th year with Seattle, Pete Carroll has a 59.6% cover rate as an underdog (48-32-3). That is the best mark among NFC teams. However, the Seahawks are just 0-1 against Jackson, and this last meeting came in his MVP-winning season.
This is also the beginning of a rough six-game NFL schedule for Seattle, where it travels against four opponents who could be favored against it. Thus, there is plenty of pressure to win this.
Ravens are Mostly a Juggernaut
Baltimore’s having the type of NFL season that mirrors its superstar quarterback. For the most, the Ravens look like a championship team. They are 6-2 and 5-3 ATS. The Ravens have the top defense (15.1 points allowed per game), and its +81 point differential is second overall. However, this team can have its ugly moments. Much like Jackson.
The Ravens lost some ugly games against Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. It failed to cover against Arizona and struggled to put away the moribund Titans. Baltimore will blow out Detroit and Cleveland, but get into a grinding affair with so-so teams.
As prolific as he has been, Jackson has not had elite performances in consecutive games. He was unconscionable against Detroit but got outplayed by journeyman Joshua Dobbs the next game. He destroyed Cleveland only to lay an egg against Pittsburgh the following week.
On top of that, the Ravens only have a 38.7% cover rate (12-19-0) as a home favorite since 2019. Thus, Baltimore can be a tough sell with these Seahawks vs Ravens expert picks. But buck these trends as Jackson and co. will light up the Seahawks.
Birds of Prey: Defense Dictates Low Totals?
We can wax poetic about the Ravens’ offense. But this team’s bread-and-butter continues to be the defense. Baltimore has the best passing defense in the NFL. It allows just 4.2 net yards per passing attempt. Opposing quarterbacks average a league-low 71.6 passer rating against Baltimore. Thus, 12 of Baltimore’s last 18 games have gone under the total.