After falling to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills are back in primetime. Buffalo will square off with the Denver Broncos on Monday (8:15 p.m. ET) at Highmark Stadium to conclude the NFL Week 10 schedule.
A majority of bettors are backing the Bills, who are 7.5-point favorites (EV) and -350 on the moneyline. Meanwhile, the Broncos are +7.5 (-120) on the NFL point spread and +280 to win outright. The total is 46.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under).
Will Buffalo bounce back at home? Or is it ripe for an upset? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Broncos vs Bills spreads.
Location: Highmark Stadium; Orchard Park, N.Y.
Streaming: ABC, ESPN
The Denver Broncos are 2-5-1 against the spread, including 0-2-1 on the road. The total has gone Over in nine of the Broncos’ last 13 games dating to last pro football season. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills have lost their last five games ATS and are 3-6 overall. The total has gone Under in four of Buffalo’s last five games. However, it’s gone Over in seven of the last 10 games against Denver. That’s important to remember when assessing the Broncos vs Bills spreads.
Time to Fade Buffalo?
The Buffalo Bills remain in the thick of the AFC East race at 5-4. Yet, amidst their recent skid, oddsmakers are starting to fade them.
Buffalo is now +1600 to win the Super Bowl, down from +1100 last week and well under their preseason tag of +900. The Bills are coming off a 24-18 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, their second in three games. A 1.5-point underdog, they failed to cover the spread for the fifth straight week.
Josh Allen was 26 of 38 passing for 258 yards, one touchdown and one interception, snapping a streak of five straight NFL games with multiple touchdown passes. He did run for a score, but it wasn’t enough to save Buffalo from sinking further.
Although the Bills remain just one game behind the Miami Dolphins atop the AFC East, oddsmakers are skeptical of their prospects of long-term success. They’re +225 to win the division and +900 to make Super Bowl LVIII.
Allen remains the biggest key to Buffalo’s hopes. A +2000 pick for NFL 2023-24 MVP, Allen has completed 71.3% of his passes for 2,423 yards and 18 touchdowns compared to nine interceptions. He’s also run for a team-high six scores. Buffalo ranks fifth in total offense, averaging 370.2 yards per game. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Broncos vs Bills spreads.
Upset Spurs Broncos
The Denver Broncos have had extra time to soak in their Week 8 upset of the Kansas City Chiefs. Following last week’s bye, Denver is sitting at 3-5. Although they remain last place in the AFC West, the Broncos are trending in the right direction after back-to-back victories.
Russell Wilson threw three touchdowns in the victory over Kansas City, helping the Broncos beat their rivals for the first time since 2015. Their 16-game losing streak was the longest for any NFL team against a single opponent.
On top of that, the Broncos’ 24 points were their most since a 31-28 win in Week 4 over the Chicago Bears. The Broncos are still averaging only 21.5 points, which is something that’ll need for improve for them to turn around their season.
Oddsmakers’ expectations remain low. The Broncos are a +1800 longshot to make the NFL playoffs. It’ll take a lot for them just to meet regular-season expectations (8.5 wins).
After a hugely disappointing debut season in Denver, Wilson hasn’t looked much better under the tutelage of Sean Payton. He’s thrown 16 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions but is averaging only 6.9 yards per attempt. That ranks 20th in the NFL behind the likes of Desmond Ridder, Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garoppolo. There’s not much upside here.
Handicapping the Game
The Bills may be down, but they’re not out. At least not yet. So long as Allen is upright, the Bills are capable of beating practically anyone. But they need to show it — fast.
Perhaps there’s no better time than Monday. The Broncos have been awful defensively. On average, they’ve given up the most points (28.3) in the NFL. That doesn’t appear to be changing anytime soon.
While Buffalo’s made a habit of playing down to its competition, it’s reasonable to think this week could be different. Look for the Bills to win handedly at home.
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