Washington Commanders 2023 Future Odds
Will New Ownership Inspire This Washington Team?
The biggest news out of D.C. is the end of the Daniel Snyder saga (for now). After several grueling offseasons, he’s out and a new ownership group led by Josh Harris is in. In terms of football, this could finally bring some stability to the organization. But the 2023 Washington Commanders stats and odds still denote a tough NFL season ahead.
Washington Commanders At A Glance
| Odds to Win | Opening Odds | Current Odds |
| Super Bowl | +8000 | +8000 |
| Conference | +2200 | +3300 |
| Division | +1100 | +1200 |
| Regular Season Win Total | 6.5 (o-135, u+115) | 6.5 (o+110, u-140) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +260, No -350 | Yes +300, No -400 |
New Owners, Same Old Team?
New ownership will alleviate some of the dysfunction that’s plagued Washington for over two decades. But that is potentially in the long-term. The short-term is a lot less promising as Washington has gotten worse during the offseason. The Commanders are in for another mediocre season at best.
However, Washington has a way of overachieving a little under Ron Rivera. Last season, the team won eight games and above its 7.5 regular-season win projection. Two seasons ago it won seven and two more than its preseason expectation. Still, the Commanders have a harder NFL schedule this year.
It also depends on how quickly Sam Howell and the offense can adapt to new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’ scheme. He comes over after five seasons under Andy Reid in Kansas City. As everyone knows, the Chiefs won two Super Bowls and were consistently a top-five offense. But he also had Reid and Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
Howell’s NFL team stats for 2022 indicated he completed 11 of his 19 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown. Washington won.
The fifth-round pick has a chance to put up prolific 2023 Washington Commanders stats if his offensive line can hold up. The unit is ranked as one of the worst and has up to 12 games against top-10-caliber pass rushes.
And on defense, the team could be worse than last season. While the Commanders gave up the sixth-fewest points, it was ranked 21st in yards. Thin at linebackers, the team could get gashed for more this 2023.
Super Bowl Odds: Howell Do They Do It?
Even if Howell turned into the second coming of Kurt Warner or Tom Brady, the Commanders are unlikely to win the Super Bowl. The former had an all-time great offense behind him and the latter had an all-time great defense. Washington has neither. Hence, its odds at 80-1 remain unchanged.
Conference Odds: A Frisky Underdog But That’s It
If Washington makes the playoffs, the best fans can hope for is to “scare” a top contender like Philadelphia or San Francisco. It’s plausible and will require either the offense or defense to play well above their pay grade. But the oddsmakers also lengthened the team’s chances of winning the conference from 22-1 in the preseason to 33-1 now.
Division Odds: In the “Division of Death”
With odds at 12-1 in winning the division, the Commanders are the consensus bottomfeeder of the NFC East. Washington snapped Philadelphia’s winning streak last season and went 2-3-1 against its rivals. But the team has the weakest roster this season. And even if it goes 3-3 against its divisional opponents, it could still finish last in the NFL division standings.
Washington has won the division three times in the last 11 years. But the team never won more than 10 games and in 2020, it won with a 7-9 record. Philadelphia and Dallas are projected to win 10+ games this season. The Commanders are hard-pressed to keep up.
Regular Season Wins: A Tougher Path
Washington has a harder schedule this season thanks partly to the resurgence of its division rivals. Philadelphia, Dallas, and the New York Giants all went to the playoffs and won at least one playoff game each. The trio also combined to go 26-7 against non-division opponents.
On top of that, Washington faces the AFC East and NFC West, which feature four playoff teams from last season, Aaron Rodgers plus the Jets’ fearsome defense, and a potentially revitalized Rams team. As such, the Commanders’ regular-season win total stays at 6.5 and is now juiced to go under that.
To Make Playoffs: On the Outside Looking In
The NFC is a top-heavy conference. You can have three teams with 11 or 12 wins while the rest hover around the 10-win mark. It’s plausible for Washington to sneak into the NFL playoffs with a 9-8 record or even an 8-9 record depending on how the other bubble teams perform. Washington was this close to making it last year.
Seattle went 9-8 and the Giants went 9-7-1. Had Washington beaten the Giants, it could have made it. But you also factor in improvements from teams like Detroit, the NFC South, and Chicago. So that bottom half of the playoff picture is getting more competitive. The 2023 Washington Commanders’ stats may pale in comparison. Thus, its playoff odds went up from +260 to +300 now.
Side Bets: Hot Seats
Only a few coaches have a hotter seat than Rivera. Hence, the sportsbook expects him as the third-likeliest coach to be fired first at 7-1. A slow start from Washington could spell the end of his tenure. And it’s not looking good.
After hosting Arizona, Washington visits Denver, then plays Buffalo, then visits Philadelphia. The team could be 1-3 and its schedule gets harder. Heck, if it loses to Arizona, Washington could even be the last winless team (+1800).
Coaching changes also hardly improve a team’s fortunes. If Rivera gets axed midseason, Washington might just “tank” and finish with the fewest wins (+900).
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