German Bundesliga 1 Outrights Update
Bayer Leverkusen on Top of Table
Bayern Going for Record 12th Straight Title
Last season’s Bundesliga title race went down to the wire and was the closest race in years. In 2023-24, it’s possible that another title race is in the cards. Even though Bayern Munich has won in 11 consecutive years, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund, and RB Leipzig all look like challengers. Leverkusen, with a 6-1-0 record through seven matches, are on top of the table and have gotten off to a great start. With over a fifth of the season done, we’ll take a look at the updated German Bundesliga 1 outrights.
Bayern and Their Biggest Challengers
A look at the Bayern Munich standings shows that the Bavarians are in third place in the Bundesliga at present. Still, they’re within striking distance of first, just two points behind leaders Bayer Leverkusen. Harry Kane has gotten off to an excellent start to life in Munich, with eight league goals. Jamal Musiala continues to improve and could be one of the best players in world football sometime soon. Plus, Leroy Sane has been in excellent form and Thomas Tuchel has swiss-army knife players like Joshua Kimmich, Alphonso Davies, and Leon Goretzka at his disposal.
The expectation every season is for Bayern to win the Bundesliga and this season is no different. They entered the season at -400 odds to win a record 12th straight league title. That hasn’t changed, as they sit at the same odds seven games into the season. Bayern are currently 5-2-0 and a crucial meeting of Der Klassiker vs. Borussia Dortmund is coming up in early November.
The biggest challengers to Bayern’s throne this season are Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen. They’ve started the season about as good as possible, with a 6-1-0 record and 23 goals scored. Victor Boniface has hit the ground running since signing from Union Saint-Gilloise, with seven goals. Granit Xhaka and Alex Grimaldo have also slotted in seamlessly. Bayer opened up the season at +5000 odds to win the Bundesliga but bettors will have to settle for +650 now.
Leverkusen also come in at -1000 odds to make the top four and it’d be surprising if they don’t achieve this given how they’ve started the season. Their recent Bundesliga scores have been excellent as they’ve managed three straight wins by a three-goal margin.
Top Four Favorites
A lot of people have written Borussia Dortmund off, especially after last season’s failure and Jude Bellingham’s departure. All Dortmund needed to do to win their first title in 11 years was win at home on the final day of the season but they drew vs. Mainz. They’ve gone under the radar so far, with five wins and two draws through seven games. This appears to be a good time to bet on their German Bundesliga 1 outrights as they show +1000 odds.
Edin Terzic’s side opened up the season at +500 and they’ve defeated four good teams in a row. They may need to add some players in January to have a real shot of knocking off Bayern but it’s a good start. Dortmund also displays -500 odds to make the top four and they are Champions League mainstays after all.
Meanwhile, RB Leipzig is looking like one of the most dangerous teams in the league. Xavi Simons, on loan from PSG, has already scored three goals and assisted on four others. Lois Openda has also scored four goals since joining from Lens.
Leipzig has never won the Bundesliga but they’ve won the DFB-Pokal for two seasons running. Marco Rose’s side currently sits at +1600 odds to win their first league title and their odds haven’t changed since opening. They’ve also finished in the top four – five seasons in a row and are priced at -350 odds to do so again.
Champions League Contenders
Stuttgart barely managed to stay in the Bundesliga last season and it took a playoff to seal their status for 2023-24. They’ve exceeded all expectations so far and Serhou Guirassy has been playing out of his mind. The Guinean international has set a Bundesliga record by scoring 13 goals in the first seven matches of the season. Not even Robert Lewandowski managed the feat during his time with Bayern Munich. Chris Fuhrich also leads the league with five assists.
Stuttgart have now won five games in a row and only Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen have scored more than them. Their form figures to tail off at some point but this purple patch has been thrilling to watch. They’re the only team not previously mentioned with shorter than +10000 odds to win the league, at +8000. The oddsmakers also price Stuttgart at a reasonable +325 odds to make the top four.
Wolfsburg last made the top four in the 2020-21 season followed by 12th and eighth-place finishes. They’ve been carried by Danish striker Jonas Wind so far, who’s managed to score seven goals in as many games. Wolfsburg sits at +1000 odds to make the top four but it’ll be a huge challenge to finish ahead of any of Bayern, Leverkusen, Dortmund, or Leipzig.
SC Freiburg has narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification in each of the last two seasons. At 3-1-3, they haven’t started off the season perfectly but their form should even out as the season goes on. They’ve been an interesting pick to bet on soccer over the last few seasons and Freiburg shows +1100 top four odds.
Hoffenheim are currently 5-2 and are priced at +1200 top four odds. Meanwhile, Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin have both struggled so far and their chances of making the Champions League are +1400 and +2000, respectively.
Relegation Picture
The Bundesliga’s relegation system involves the bottom two teams going down to the 2nd Bundesliga. Meanwhile, the 16th-placed team contests a relegation playoff with the third-placed Bundesliga team. There are three winless teams remaining in the Bundesliga and they’re Koln, Mainz, and VfL Bochum. However, the German Bundesliga 1 outrights list the two most likely teams to go down as Darmstadt and Heidenheim.
Both sides just earned promotion to the Bundesliga following the 2022-23 season and Darmstadt are relegation favorites, at -140. Heidenheim is currently in 10th place but sits at +125 odds to go straight back down following their first-ever Bundesliga season.
Bochum and Augsburg were close to the relegation zone last season and are both priced at +200 odds to face the drop. Koln and Mainz have been competitive sides over the last few seasons. However, they have compiled just one and two points so far, respectively. They both come in at +250 relegation odds. Werder Bremen and Borussia Monchengladbach are other teams in potential danger, at +450 and +900.
For German Bundesliga betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
