Lions Loom as Clear Underdogs in NFC Title Game Against 49ers
Lions vs 49ers Free Pick: San Francisco Climbs to -7
The San Francisco 49ers have been favored for weeks to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas, and their suspect showing in last Saturday’s win over Green Bay doesn’t change that. The 49ers still have one more hurdle to clear, however, that being the conference title game on Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET) against the Detroit Lions.
San Francisco opened as 6.5-point favorites, but that number has since climbed to -7, with sportsbooks offering the 49ers at -112 to cover. The 49ers are also -325 on the moneyline, with Detroit coming in at +260 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total continues to hold steady at 51 after bouncing between 50.5 and 52.5.
What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and give our Lions-49ers expert pick.
Lions vs 49ers 
Day/Time:
Records: Lions (12-5)/49ers (12-5)
Location: Levi’s Stadium; Santa Clara, Calif.
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Lions NFL’s Best ATS
Detroit may not have the NFL’s best record, but it’s unmatched from a betting perspective. The Lions have been the league’s most profitable team for bettors, going 13-6 ATS for a cover rate of 68.4%. They’ve covered in five of their last six games, except their Wild Card win over the Rams. That includes a 7-2 mark ATS away from home.
Only two other NFL teams even have 12 wins ATS, that being Baltimore (12-6) and Tampa Bay (12-7).
This is only Detroit’s fourth game this NFL season as an underdog and the first since Week 17 against Dallas, in which the Lions closed at +4.5. They went 2-1 ATS and 1-2 OU in the previous three instances. That’s important to remember when assessing our Lions-49ers expert pick.
Detroit Rewriting History
Detroit, one of the NFL’s most beleaguered franchises, is playing in its first NFC title game since the 1991 season. Before this season, the Lions’ last playoff appearance was in 2016. They were +900 to win the NFC, but bettors are now just a win away from cashing in on those odds
Fueled by the NFL’s No. 3-ranked offense, the Lions went 12-5 to win their first division title since 1993. Jared Goff was instrumental in that success, throwing for 4,575 yards and 30 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions. ‘
Even so, Goff still has skeptics. Goff has been far more effective at home this season, where he’s completed 70.1% of his passes and registered a sparkling 107.9 QB rating. That’s compared to a 64.8% completion rate and 89.4 QB rating on the road.
Nevertheless, the Lions went 6-3 on the road and covered seven of those nine NFL games.
Despite its resurgence, Detroit is easily the biggest longshot of the remaining semifinalists at +750. The Lions opened the season +2000 to win the Super Bowl and struggled to earn the trust of bettors despite a 9-3 start. It wasn’t until early December that they climbed to +1000.
49ers’ Case as Favorites No Mystery
The 49ers have established themselves as the NFL’s team to beat. They went 7-2 after the Week 9 bye, with one of those losses coming in Week 18 with most of their starters resting. Despite an uneven performance against Green Bay in the Divisional Round, the 49ers are +145 favorites to win the Super Bowl.
San Francisco, a +900 preseason pick, has been favored in every game, including twice by as many as 14..5 points. In some respects, the 49ers have been a liability for bettors with a 9-9 record ATS. They’ve failed to cover in six straight home games and are just 3-6 ATS at home.
Still, they’re favorites in the NFC playoff standings for a reason. They’re arguably the league’s most balanced team, having finished third in scoring offense and defense. They also posted the third-best scoring differential at plus-193, trailing only Baltimore (+203) and Dallas (+194).
Plus, Christian McCaffrey is in good health. After sitting out the regular-season finale, McCaffrey returned from a calf strain to rush for 98 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay. He also had seven catches for 30 yards. The three-time All-Pro — a -300 favorite to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year — led the league in both rushing (1,459) and yards from scrimmage (2,023) and scored 21 touchdowns. The 49ers are 6-1 this year when he rushes for at least 100 yards.
Injuries Loom Large
Uncertainty continues to surround receiver Deebo Samuel, who was forced from Saturday’s win with an injury to his left shoulder. Tests revealed that Samuel did not suffer a fracture, raising optimism about his availability for the NFL playoffs NFC Championship Game. Still, the 49ers remain mum about his status.
As for the Lions, center Frank Ragnow is expected to play Sunday despite suffering both knee and ankle sprains in the Divisional Round. Ragnow missed only one game earlier this season following surgery to repair a torn meniscus.
Be sure to monitor both teams’ NFL injury reports when analyzing our Lions-49ers expert pick.
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